Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000 for the first time since January and briefly pushed toward $83,000, but Wintermute says the breakout may not reflect a healthy return of spot demand. In its latest market update, the trading firm argued that BTC's move through the long-watched 200-day moving average looks strong on the surface, yet the underlying structure is being driven mainly by derivatives.
Open interest surged while spot activity fell to a two-year low
According to Wintermute OTC trader Jjay_dm, Bitcoin's latest advance came with a $10 billion jump in open interest over the past month, while spot trading volume dropped to its lowest level in two years. That is a mismatch the firm views with caution. In a typical bull market, spot buying confirms price strength; here, perpetual futures appear to be doing most of the work.
Wintermute said short sellers had built positions while BTC consolidated above $70,000, and many of those trades are now being forced to close as price rises. That buying can keep pushing the market higher for a period, but the firm stressed that covering shorts is not the same as fresh conviction. Funding rates still lean short, suggesting the squeeze may continue, yet RSI is already in overbought territory. If the squeeze fades before spot buyers step in, support around $80,000 could prove fragile.
CPI data and the Fed chair handoff are the week's key macro events
Wintermute also pointed to a heavy macro calendar. US equities have remained strong, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching record highs, while the better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls print of 115,000 signaled continued labor-market resilience. At the same time, markets have shown far less sensitivity to geopolitical stress than earlier in the year.
The report noted that after the US launched “Project Freedom” and sank Iranian ships, and after Donald Trump rejected Iran's counter peace proposal, Brent crude swung sharply between $88 and $113. Even so, the war premium built up in the first quarter has largely faded. Wintermute highlighted two immediate risk points: Tuesday's CPI release, which will more fully capture the pass-through from recent energy price gains, and Thursday's expected Fed leadership transition, with Jerome Powell's term ending and Warsh expected to take over. The first June FOMC dot plot under the new chair is being watched closely.
Long-term institutional demand remains in place
For the bigger picture, Wintermute did not abandon its constructive view on Bitcoin. The firm said ETF inflows are still coming in, citing Morgan Stanley's new ETF, which attracted $194 million in its first month with zero outflows. Exchange reserves are also sitting at a seven-year low, a sign that large holders continue to accumulate.
In altcoins, the market is no longer moving in a broad, undifferentiated way. Wintermute said capital is rotating toward specific themes, especially tokenization and RWA projects, as well as AI compute tokens that are attracting clearer buying interest. For Bitcoin, the next test is straightforward: whether it can hold $80,000 once the market passes through CPI and the Fed chair transition.