TechFlowPost on Sept. 8 published a market analysis by XinGPT saying the crypto market remains in a pre-bull phase, with prices still recovering and a larger bull run next year possible if liquidity and narrative support arrive together.
The article starts with a broader trading point. After speaking with several experienced traders last week, XinGPT wrote that one issue had become especially clear: every trade needs to be defined by both its time horizon and its purpose. In practice, that means deciding up front whether a position is long term or short term, then building a matching system for information gathering, analysis, position management, and risk control.
Long-term positions are built around cost and cycle timing
For long-term positions, the article says the core task is controlling cost. Lower entry prices make positions easier to hold through volatility, so the focus should be on whether the market is near a cycle bottom or whether an asset has been unfairly sold down.
XinGPT says the information framework for long-term holdings should begin with fundamentals. The ideal setup is one where the fundamental thesis remains solid, but the asset is under pressure because capital has not yet favored it or because macro factors are weighing on price. In that case, the trader needs an ongoing tracking system for the asset rather than a one-off view.
On the technical side, the article highlights a few signals: support appearing after a break below a key level, then a period of low-volatility sideways trading near the bottom. It also suggests comparing those patterns with the characteristics seen at previous cycle lows. On sentiment, the author points to a progression from pessimism to negativity and then despair, including moments when an asset is seen as "dead," "outdated," or still trapped in a bear market.
Asset selection matters as well. XinGPT says long-term positions should focus on industry leaders with durable investment value, citing Nvidia and Bitcoin as examples of assets that have moved through multiple bull and bear cycles and still gone on to set new highs. By contrast, assets that fail to make new highs in a new cycle are described as less attractive choices.
The article also notes that long-term positions are not simply buy-and-hold forever. Profit-taking and exits still matter, so traders need to keep watching what phase the market is in, how much upside may remain, and how many new participants are still waiting to enter.
Short-term positions follow trend and require firm stops
For short-term trades, XinGPT frames the approach as trend trading. The distinction from long-term positions is direct: long-term spot positions may be accumulated on weakness over a period of time and, in the author’s framework, do not use stop losses. Short-term positions, by comparison, are taken in the direction of the trend on either the long or short side, with stop-loss rules set before entry. If the underlying logic breaks, the position should be cut.
The article says the long-term versus short-term split is also a way to manage attention. Long-term opportunities often appear when the market has forgotten about them, so they need their own watchlist and tracking process. XinGPT adds that chasing hot themes all the time can make traders neglect positions that deserve long-term focus, only to notice them after the move has already happened.
Mixing the two frameworks can create two different mistakes: panic-selling a long-term position near a value low, or repeatedly buying a broken short-term setup until it turns into a deep loss.
To address that, the article lists two action items:
- build a watchlist for long-term positions and keep tracking both news flow and price action for those assets;
- decide whether each trade is short term or long term before entering, while also keeping records and making profit-taking, stop-loss, and exit plans.
Crypto view remains unchanged: still in a pre-bull market
Returning to crypto, XinGPT says the broader market view is unchanged. The author still sees digital assets in a pre-bull market stage. Looking at the four-year cycle and current tape action, the article argues that this pre-bull phase is still in progress.
XinGPT writes that the market remains favorable through the midterm elections. If narrative strength and liquidity support arrive together, next year could mark the start of a larger bull market.
The piece compares the current period with early 2023 and early 2019. In both earlier cases, after the first leg higher began, the market still pulled back to test the 200-day simple moving average, or SMA200. From a larger cycle perspective, the author says there is still room for swing trades over a broader time frame.
As for execution, XinGPT says short-term positions would use a stop around 75,500. If price breaks that level and fails to recover it, the short-term trade would be closed. For longer-term positioning, the article says two scenarios would be considered for entry: price breaking below the SMA200 and moving into sideways trading, or price testing the SMA200 without losing it.
Specific notes on ZEC, Pons, and MEME
On individual assets, the article says ZEC has entered a second consolidation range after making a new high. XinGPT remains constructive and says the token can be accumulated gradually through dollar-cost averaging, while short-term holders can stay in the trade as long as the structure does not break.
For Pons, the article says the asset is moving lower to find support. If the 0.618 level holds, gradual buying is the approach described.
On MEME, the author says the narrative is strong, technicals are strong, and on-chain positioning is a focus, while also mentioning calls made by Bonkguy. The article says 88m was Bonkguy’s call level and 42m was described as his "cost basis." The more conservative setup, according to the piece, is to begin buying near 88, cut the trade if price falls back to the cost basis, and also consider buying if there is only a brief break below 88.
Storage-related stocks and positioning before CPI
The article also touches on equities. XinGPT says storage-related stocks started to strengthen after OAI released a new model, with the group forming a rising flag pattern and NBIS also printing an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
On timing, the article says short-term traders can look to sell high and buy low before Friday’s CPI release. XinGPT adds that reducing exposure before CPI is also under consideration.
The analysis was published under the byline XinGPT on Sept. 8.
