Xinhuo Research Institute said the market is going through a broad reset, from regulatory expectations to capital structure, with Bitcoin under pressure last week as several factors hit at the same time.
According to the institute, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission canceled a scheduled meeting on crypto regulatory rules, while discussion of a tokenization-related "innovation exemption" was delayed without a new date. Spot Bitcoin ETFs then swung to about $390 million in net outflows after two consecutive weeks of net inflows. At the same time, the Coinbase Bitcoin Price Index continued to show a negative premium, and the Fear and Greed Index fell back to around 34.
Xinhuo said those signals point to one central conclusion: the market is waiting for the next anchor of certainty, and that anchor could emerge this week.
Policy events this week are in focus
On the policy side, the White House is expected to hold a meeting with crypto and prediction-market industry executives on Aug. 19, with senior officials from the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission likely to take part. On Aug. 20, the CFTC is set to hold the first meeting of its Innovation Advisory Committee. Discussion related to the CLARITY Act may also continue in September.
Xinhuo Research Institute said those events are likely to release positive policy signals. If constructive statements are delivered, they could help improve market confidence at the margin in the short term.
Macro shifts and industry capital flows are also shaping the market
On the macro front, recent cooling inflation in the United States and weaker retail data have sharply reduced expectations for a September rate hike, with the probability dropping to about 33%. FedWatch currently shows Dec. 9 as the point when the first rate hike of the year may arrive.
At the same time, the institute said uncertainty remains. While the U.S.-Iran conflict has not seen a major escalation, the impact on global refining centers has tightened supplies of refined oil products and pushed oil prices higher, which still needs to be monitored.
Xinhuo also flagged a structural shift inside the industry: capital is moving into AI on a large scale. It said financing tied to AI infrastructure buildout is tightening overall liquidity in the crypto market, which is one of the key reasons sentiment has remained subdued. The institute said investors should keep watching for when AI investment cools and when the broader macro environment turns looser.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase after pulling back from higher levels
On trading, Xinhuo said Bitcoin is now in a volatile base-building stage after retreating from higher levels. The daily EMA7 is around $63,329 and the EMA20 is around $63,807, with price trading below both short-term moving averages.
RSI14 is about 44, putting it in a neutral-to-weak range without entering oversold territory. Volatility below the middle Bollinger Band remains moderate. The key resistance levels are $65,000 and $65,800, while key support stands at $62,500 and $62,000.
Xinhuo Research Institute said that as regulatory catalysts gradually land, the current range may represent a staged bottoming area.