XRP has dropped 33% over the past month, now trading near $1.37. Technical analyst Arthur sees this decline as a possible rare long-term buying opportunity. Citing a structure dating back to March 2017, he notes that the price repeatedly tests a support band between $0.85 and $0.95 — roughly 30% below current levels. In his view, this zone acts as a strategic stronghold where "smart money" could establish positions, setting the stage for a significant market shift.
Volume and Open Interest Signal Institutional Absence
Trading volumes in 2024 lag far behind previous surges, especially compared with the massive trades from November 2020 through April 2021. The latest upswing saw activity just a quarter of that past peak, suggesting large institutional players have yet to fully commit. Arthur contends that recent volatility has mostly involved whales and select funds, with the transformative wave of institutional momentum yet to be unleashed. Derivatives data also highlight a cooling-off period. Analysis by Arab Chain shows that about 5 billion XRP worth of open positions have been closed across major exchanges like Bybit, Binance, and Kraken. As leveraged traders reduce risk and withdraw, observers see this as a transitional "clean-up phase" — a familiar prelude to a new trend.
Macro Factors and Institutional Adoption Strengthen Outlook
Optimism extends beyond technicals. By early 2026, five key macro developments are bolstering XRP: Ripple's legal clarity after the SEC case, the RLUSD stablecoin launch, deeper integration of Ripple's tech into global finance, and accelerated real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Experts note that macro factors often reinforce technical signals, and current external conditions favor upward momentum. This phase differs from previous speculative cycles as genuine institutional infrastructure takes shape. XRP has a history of explosive rebounds after dramatic declines — for example, after a 2022 lull, prices hit an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025. The focus now shifts from speculators to institutional frameworks, with key support zones seen as vital. As trading volumes recover, analysts anticipate the current quiet period will give way to marked volatility.