Binance data shows XRP funding rates stayed in deeply negative territory over the past 30 days, a sign that bearish positioning has become more pronounced in the perpetual futures market. Funding rates are widely used to read sentiment because they reflect which side of the market is paying to keep positions open.
Analyst Darkfost said the persistence of negative rates points to a clear shift in derivatives traders’ expectations. In his view, the market has been leaning bearish on XRP since the start of the year, with participants showing little conviction that the token can recover in the near term.
Price drawdown has reinforced bearish positioning
The report links that sentiment to XRP’s sharp decline from its July 2025 peak of $2.45. Since then, the token has lost nearly 70%, adding weight to the negative tone across the market. The article notes that extreme negative funding rates and a steep price drop are moving in the same direction, reflecting broad expectations of more downside.
There is also a historical counterpoint. In April 2025, XRP fell to $1.25 before staging a 126% rebound. That episode showed that heavily negative funding can appear before reversals, though analysts cautioned that each cycle has its own structure and that past recoveries do not guarantee a repeat.
Open interest, market cap and NVT all point to softer demand
Beyond funding rates, XRP futures open interest has dropped to $350.6 million, one of the weaker readings seen in recent months. Open interest tracks the notional value of outstanding futures contracts, so a decline usually suggests leveraged traders are cutting exposure or closing positions instead of building fresh ones.
XRP’s market capitalization has also fallen to $10.89 billion. Analyst Pelinay said the retreat in market cap alongside weaker open interest highlights limited willingness among investors to hold or accumulate XRP at current levels. Capital is thinning out. So is risk appetite.
On-chain valuation metrics are not offering much support either. XRP’s NVT ratio stands at 162.86, which remains elevated. A high NVT reading can indicate that network activity is not expanding fast enough to justify the token’s valuation, raising questions about whether price levels are running ahead of actual transaction use.
Traders are still watching for a shift
Taken together, the current readings describe a market with weaker demand, lower leverage, and continued selling pressure. The article also notes that about 40% of altcoins are now trading near their all-time lows. XRP is still above its historical bottom, but the direction of funding rates and open interest suggests derivatives traders are still positioned for additional downside.