XRP on-chain data flashed a rare positive signal: the number of addresses holding at least 1 million XRP rose for the first time since September 2025. According to Santiment, the count of these "millionaire" wallets increased by 42 this month to 2,016, ending a four-month consecutive decline.
Santiment: Long-term capital quietly returning
Santiment posted on X: "A net of +42 wallets with at least 1M XRP have returned to the ledger, an encouraging sign for the long-term." The metric is often viewed as a proxy for whale conviction, and its rebound suggests larger holders are repositioning.
XRP ETF inflows diverge from BTC ETF outflows
Aligned with on-chain data, U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded a net inflow of $91.72 million this month. The funds had attracted $666 million and $499 million in November and December 2025, respectively. In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $278 million in redemptions in January, extending the broader exodus that saw over $4 billion leave in the final two months of 2025.
Price action: stuck below the 50-day moving average
Despite the improving fundamentals, XRP price remains in a broad downtrend. The token last traded at $1.88, down 1.7% on a 24-hour basis. It has failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average this month, with rallies repeatedly fading near the $2 handle. This suggests that large holders may be positioning for a longer-term thesis rather than chasing short-term momentum.
The divergence — rising whale balances and steady ETF inflows alongside weak price action — points to quiet accumulation rather than speculative froth. Historically, similar setups in XRP have preceded consolidation periods before sharper moves, though timing has varied widely.
For now, XRP appears caught between longer-term positioning and short-term risk aversion. Without a broader crypto market rally led by bitcoin and ether, the token may struggle to convert improving fundamentals into sustained upside.