XRP is trading around $1.04, hovering near its lowest levels in 19 months. Mixed signals are emerging from technical analysis and on-chain data — while short-term reversal patterns are flashing, selling pressure from large holders persists.
Two Bullish Reversal Signals Appear
Analyst Ali Charts notes that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator on the daily XRP chart has generated a buy signal — a “9” candle that traders often interpret as exhaustion of downward momentum. Historically, this setup has preceded one-to-four-day price rebounds.
Adding to the case, the last three sessions produced a Morning Star Doji candlestick pattern, a classic formation for identifying local bottoms on technical charts. Ali Charts suggests the combination increases the likelihood of XRP forming a short-term floor. If buying volume picks up, the price could move toward $1.30.
$1.06 Becomes the Key Battle Line
On-chain UTXO Realized Price Distribution data identifies $1.06 as a critical support level, where over 830 million XRP recently changed hands. Holding above this mark could pave the way for a recovery to $1.27 and $1.35, according to Ali Charts. A daily close below $1.06 would leave XRP exposed to further downside toward $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51.
Network Activity Jumps but Whales Still Dump
On-chain metrics show rising engagement. Daily active XRP addresses surged from roughly 23,000 to 40,000 over the past two weeks — a nearly 50% increase. Santiment reports that 4,941 new wallets were created on XRP Ledger in a single day, the strongest network growth in over three months. Notably, this expansion occurred as XRP traded near the $1 support, with social sentiment showing 3.7 positive comments for every negative one.
Yet the uptick in activity hasn't outweighed selling pressure. Ali Charts observes that large wallets have sold more than 30 million XRP in the past five days, suggesting that some of the address growth may reflect both new demand and tokens moving to exchanges.
ETF Inflows and Regulatory Delays
Institutional interest remains visible. XRP spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $15.34 million as of June 29, led by Bitwise with $11.94 million and Canary XRPC with $3.40 million. Cumulative net inflows now total $1.485 billion.
On the regulatory front, the U.S. CLARITY Act process has been delayed. Crypto analyst Crypto Crusader argues that the broader regulatory context around Ripple and XRP is being overlooked, noting that Ripple has been expanding its global compliance footprint ahead of potential legislative changes. However, U.S. lawmakers are currently focusing on other regulations after returning from recess.