XRP has cooled after a strong run, trading at $2.14 at press time, down 5% over the past 24 hours. The retreat has not erased the recent advance. XRP is still up 17% over the last seven days and 3.6% over the past month, with price moving between $1.83 and $2.39 during the past week. The near-term question is simple: can buyers keep the market stable around the $2.00 area?
The broader recovery is still unfinished. XRP remains about 41% below its July peak of $3.65. Trading activity has started to cool as the rally pauses. Spot volume over 24 hours dropped 34% to $4.29 billion, a sign that participation has become lighter after the move higher.
Derivatives activity weakens after the rally
CoinGlass data points in the same direction. XRP derivatives volume fell 39% to $7.38 billion, while open interest slipped 6% to $4.15 billion. When both figures decline at the same time, it usually shows traders are closing positions instead of adding fresh exposure. That pattern often appears after sharp price swings.
Short-term traders may be stepping back, but larger holders are getting busier on-chain. Data shared by Santiment on Dec. 9 showed whale transactions on the XRP Ledger jumping to 2,802 in a single day, the highest reading in three months. In this case, whale transactions refer to transfers worth at least $100,000.
Whale activity rises as exchange supply keeps falling
Past spikes in large transfers have often come before bigger market moves. The reason can vary. Some whales may be taking profits, while others may be repositioning. Around 83% of XRP holders are currently in profit, which leaves room for short-term selling pressure if some holders decide to lock in gains.
Token flows have also drawn attention. On Jan. 5, Ripple moved 300 million XRP, worth about $652 million, from a company-linked wallet to an unknown address. The transfer fits Ripple’s standard escrow routine, in which 1 billion XRP is unlocked each month and most of it is locked again.
Exchange balances add another piece to the setup. The amount of XRP held on exchanges has fallen by more than 50% in recent months to roughly 1.6 billion tokens. Lower exchange balances can intensify price moves when demand returns, and they can also reduce immediate sell-side pressure.
$1.96 remains a key support while $2.26 caps the upside
On the chart, XRP is consolidating after breaking higher. Price recently pushed above the $2.10 to $2.15 zone, an area that had capped gains through late December. That range is now acting as near-term support. XRP has also reclaimed its short-term moving average near $1.96, which remains an important level for the current trend structure.
After weeks of sideways trading, XRP moved above the middle Bollinger Band at $2.05, suggesting momentum has improved. It is now testing the upper band at $2.26. Without a pickup in volatility, that level could limit the next leg higher. The relative strength index has climbed to 59, showing stronger momentum than before, though rallies inside weaker trends can still slow in that range.
Price structure also shows a higher low near $1.88 to $1.90, which supports the short-term setup. As long as XRP holds above $1.96 on a daily close, the chart remains constructive. A clean break above $2.26 would bring $2.40 to $2.50 back into view. If support fails, attention shifts to $1.85, with deeper downside near $1.66.