The U.S. Senate left town without taking up the Clarity Act, delaying a crypto market-structure vote until at least September. Most major coins barely reacted. XRP did.
While Bitcoin was largely flat and dealing with separate pressure, Dogecoin gained 1.38% over the day, making it the strongest performer among the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization. XRP fell 2.05%, the only major token to close lower. Over the past week, it was down 3%, trailing the rest of the large-cap group by a wide margin.
Why the delay matters more for XRP
For XRP, the setback is not simply procedural. Decrypt said the token’s broader 2025–2026 rally thesis depended heavily on the U.S. finally defining what XRP is under federal law.
The Clarity Act is designed to sort crypto assets into securities and commodities. In draft versions previously reported by Decrypt, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin would be reclassified as non-securities.
That would place those assets under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, rather than the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. The report said crypto industry observers generally see the CFTC as the more favorable regulator compared with the SEC’s historically tougher stance.
For Ripple, whose co-founder created XRP, that is the outcome years of litigation have revolved around: a federal answer to the SEC’s long-running case over whether XRP was an unregistered security. Ripple has agreed to pay $50 million to settle its cross-appeal with the SEC, but a statute would carry broader force than a settlement.
A law would settle the question at once for exchanges, custodians, and regulators. Without that legal answer, XRP remains in limbo. The report argued that the chart appears to be pricing in exactly that uncertainty.
XRP price action and chart levels
XRP was trading at $1.028, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $64 billion, and was down 0.71% on the day. After a red daily candle, the token remained pinned just above the $1.00 psychological floor. On the daily chart, that marks the second-lowest print since early 2024, above only last month’s low of $0.9153.
The trajectory, according to the report, is a steady downtrend. XRP has been in a strong bearish trend since 2025, when it reached $3 per coin. The 50-day exponential moving average has crossed below the 200-day exponential moving average, forming what traders call a death cross. XRP is now below both averages, leaving no moving-average support underneath the current price.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, stands at 35.9. RSI measures momentum on a 0-to-100 scale, with readings above 70 generally viewed as overbought and readings below 30 seen as oversold. At 35.9, the report said momentum remains bearish and still leaves room for more downside before buyers would typically step in.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 11.9. ADX measures trend strength rather than direction, and a reading below 20 often signals a move that lacks conviction and is prone to choppier trading. Even so, the Squeeze Momentum indicator remains off, which the report interpreted as expanding volatility rather than compression.
In that setup, there is no compressed move waiting to snap. Price action tends to unfold more slowly.
The $1 line remains the key divide
The bullish case would begin with a daily close back above $1.10, described in the report as the lower Fibonacci zone and the first meaningful resistance level. A move through $1.13, the point of control, would add to the case that the floor is holding. The report also noted that progress on the Clarity Act, even if not before September, could revive bullish appetite among traders.
The bearish case is more straightforward. A break below $1.00 opens a path to $0.9153, the chart’s lowest mark since 2024. A daily close there would confirm the downtrend and wipe out the recovery seen after 2024. Given the current setup, the report described that scenario as very likely.
On Myriad, the prediction market developed by Decrypt parent company Dastan, traders were still leaning optimistic over the short term. Market pricing implied 77% odds that XRP would remain above $1.00 through the weekend.
For now, $1.00 is the line that matters. Above it, XRP is still cheap and near oversold territory. Below it, the chart suggests the slide is not over.