Tiger Research argues that Asia’s prediction market problem is not cultural resistance but a missing legal framework. In its report, the firm says Western jurisdictions have found ways to fit prediction markets into existing systems, either through derivatives law in the United States or gambling licenses in the United Kingdom, while much of Asia has done neither. The result, according to the report, is that substantial trading activity continues on offshore platforms without tax collection, consumer safeguards, or formal market oversight. The report walks through the main regulatory paths now visible globally. In the US, prediction contracts were absorbed through commodity and derivatives law, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission becoming the central regulator. In the UK, regulators treated these platforms as betting intermediaries under the Gambling Act 2005. Continental Europe, by contrast, has largely closed both doors through binary options restrictions and strict national gambling laws, though Gibraltar has created a separate regime and the European Union has opened a review process under MiCA. Tiger Research says Asia faces a structural problem on both sides of the classification debate: state-controlled gambling monopolies leave little room for private innovation, and closed definitions in financial law make it hard to classify event contracts as derivatives. The report says that without regulatory adaptation, trading will not disappear but will stay offshore, leaving governments to forgo tax revenue while still bearing enforcement costs.

Tiger Research argues that Asia has not suppressed prediction markets by leaving them unregulated. Instead, activity has migrated to offshore platforms, where governments lose tax revenue and users lack clear consumer protections. In the report, the firm contrasts Western regulatory paths with Asia’s structural constraints, saying the key issue is not cultural resistance to prediction markets but the absence of a legal framework that can classify them. The report says the U.S. found a path through derivatives law, with event contracts fitting into the Commodity Exchange Act and oversight centered at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The U.K. took a different route, treating prediction markets as a form of betting under the Gambling Act 2005 and requiring a betting intermediary license. Continental Europe, by contrast, has built a two-layer barrier through financial rules under MiFID II and national gambling laws, though Gibraltar created a separate regime in July 2026 and the European Commission has put the issue into its MiCA review process. For Asia, Tiger Research points to two obstacles: state-controlled gambling licensing systems and financial product definitions that rely on closed lists of eligible underlying assets. The report says more than $52 million in liquidity tied to South Korea’s June 2026 local elections has already flowed into related prediction markets, showing demand exists even without domestic rules. It outlines three policy routes for Asian regulators: fold the sector into gambling regulation, treat it as a derivatives product, or create a standalone third category.

Tiger Research argues that Asia’s prediction market problem is not weak public acceptance, but the absence of legal structures that can classify and supervise the sector. In the report, the firm contrasts Asia with the United States, the United Kingdom, and parts of Europe, where prediction markets have at least found routes into existing systems through derivatives law, betting intermediary licenses, or dedicated legislative treatment. By comparison, many Asian jurisdictions still lack both a general licensing regime that private operators can use and an open-ended financial product definition that can cover non-financial event contracts. The report says that gap has not stopped activity. Instead, liquidity has moved to offshore platforms, leaving governments without tax revenue and users without formal consumer protection or market integrity oversight. Tiger Research points to more than $52 million, or about KRW 72.8 billion, in liquidity tied to South Korea’s June 2026 local elections as evidence that demand already exists even without a domestic framework. It outlines three policy routes for Asia: adapt gambling regulation, absorb prediction markets through derivatives law, or create a standalone third category similar to Gibraltar’s new approach. The report concludes that before any of those options can advance, Asian jurisdictions first need a public policy process that openly debates what prediction markets are and how they should be classified.

Polymarket said it plans to challenge a nationwide website block imposed in France after the country’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), ordered internet service providers to restrict access to the platform. The company said it regretted the decision and argued that it had already stopped offering trading functions to users in France in November 2024. Even so, French authorities concluded the site was still making unauthorized gambling products available because it continued to display market odds and prediction data to the public. According to Polymarket, the site has been limited to informational access for French users since the trading halt, and many visitors do not come to trade or place bets. The company said a full website block is disproportionate because it also affects non-transactional users seeking information. Polymarket added that it would pursue legal remedies and stay in contact with prosecutors in an effort to find a path to operate within the law. The dispute turns on how the platform is classified. Polymarket describes itself as a blockchain-based financial platform using a peer-to-peer structure in which prices are set by supply and demand among participants. It says it does not set odds, hold positions in markets, or profit from outcomes. France, however, still treats that model as unlicensed illegal gambling. The move comes as several countries tighten scrutiny of decentralized prediction markets.

Brazil’s Workers’ Party has introduced a bill to scrap the country’s online betting framework and ban gambling nationwide, with broad language that could reach crypto-linked payment processing.

A broad set of market, security, regulatory, and infrastructure developments emerged between late July 22 and early July 23. Binance said it will add 10 tokenized bStocks securities as eligible collateral and open margin trading for their related pairs, while Upbit designated Zilliqa’s ZIL as a closely watched asset and suspended deposits and withdrawals after security concerns tied to its wallet or distributed ledger. Zilliqa then disclosed a serious Ledger app nonce flaw affecting native, non-EVM ZIL transactions, saying private keys could be recovered from around five affected signatures. Security incidents also hit B² Network and an AFX-operated bridge in the Arbitrum ecosystem. Elsewhere, Payward said xStocks is expanding tokenized equities beyond U.S. names, Sui launched the Hashi Bitcoin interoperability testnet, BNY Mellon outlined plans for round-the-clock Treasury settlement, and several firms including OpenAI, Alphabet, Revolut, Tesla, and Samsung disclosed major product, spending, or financial updates. The flow also included U.S. legislative movement on the Clarity bill, SEC commentary on on-chain vaults and lending strategies, whale ETH purchases, and fresh market views from Grayscale and Bitwise.

Polymarket said it will challenge France’s decision to block access to its prediction market platform, according to Reuters, setting up a legal fight with the country’s gambling regulator. The French National Gambling Authority, or ANJ, blocked the site last week, arguing that the platform could expose users to significant gambling losses and that its markets were vulnerable to manipulation. Polymarket said it was disappointed and would seek relief through French legal channels. The development came alongside a broader set of crypto and tech updates. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said lawmakers are in the “final sprint” on the CLARITY bill and urged Congress to pass it before recess, according to Cointelegraph. Separately, The Block reported that Movement Labs, the former core developer behind the Movement blockchain, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware on July 15, listing liabilities of as much as $10 million and naming co-founder Rushikesh “Rushi” Manche as its largest unsecured creditor with claims exceeding $1.6 million. Other developments included Google’s release of new Gemini Flash models, a response from Xiaohongshu denying IPO rumors, layoffs in Amazon’s AGI unit, fresh on-chain tracking of funds stolen from Summer Fi, an OpenAI security incident disclosed during internal model testing, and Kraken parent Payward’s plan to expand xStocks into additional overseas equity markets.

France’s national gambling regulator has ordered all domestic internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, escalating a four-year standoff with the crypto-based prediction platform. The order, formally issued on July 16, treats Polymarket as illegal gambling rather than an unlicensed crypto exchange, a distinction that could shape how other European regulators proceed. French authorities said an earlier restriction introduced in November 2024, which barred domestic users from sending funds to the platform, failed to curb activity. Citing Similarweb data, the regulator said Polymarket drew 205,057 unique visitors in France and 578,751 total visits in June 2026 alone, with VPN use allowing users to bypass payment restrictions. Authorities also pointed to two enforcement tracks: a complaint from Météo-France over alleged manipulation of temperature sensor data tied to weather contracts on Polymarket, and a review of a French trader using the account name “Fredi9999,” who was said to have shifted odds in 2024 U.S. election markets through large positions. With more than 30 countries and territories already restricting Polymarket, France’s decision may become a reference point for the European Union as it weighs whether crypto prediction markets belong under gambling law or financial-market rules such as MiCA.