ARK Invest says a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced by year-end, with China seen as a manageable issue
ARK Invest used the latest episode of its podcast The Brainstorm to argue that China is unlikely to be the decisive obstacle to a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX, while also laying out an aggressive view on how quickly AI costs are collapsing. In the Aug. 7 episode, Brett Winton said Tesla’s Shanghai factory is no longer the core driver of the company’s future value because Robotaxi, not China manufacturing, sits at the center of Tesla’s next phase. He said Chinese assets could likely be ring-fenced to address national security concerns tied to SpaceX and added that a formal merger announcement could come before the end of 2026. The discussion also focused on AI economics. Winton said ARK’s data shows annualized cost declines of 99.99% on a harder agentic benchmark between February and July 31, up from a 99% annual drop cited in the firm’s Big Ideas report. He argued that the shift is not only about lower cost at a fixed level of performance, but also about higher performance ceilings, pointing to tasks that were unattainable earlier this year but can now be completed for 15 cents each. Nick Grous took a more cautious stance on who ultimately wins the market, citing examples such as Spotify, Robinhood, Block and Palantir to argue that model routing, open-source tools and application-layer strategies could still leave room for many players.








