A ChainCatcher commentary by Zhao Haibei argues that the key question around Coinbase is not whether the stock can rise from here, but whether it offers a better use of capital than alternatives such as BTC or a Circle-plus-BTC mix. The piece says many of Coinbase’s well-known weaknesses — declining market share, bloated management and weaker product competitiveness — are already reflected in the price, shifting the debate toward relative value rather than an absolute bull or bear call. The analysis breaks Coinbase’s business into stablecoin revenue and everything else. Using second-quarter figures, it estimates that roughly $15 billion of Coinbase’s $38.5 billion market value is tied to its stablecoin business, leaving about $23.5 billion assigned to trading, staking, subscriptions, lending and other non-USDC lines. On that basis, the author argues the real question is whether Coinbase’s non-stablecoin business deserves about 6.5x sales, especially when compared with holding BTC directly. The article also reviews eight periods when COIN outperformed BTC on a relative basis and finds that six of them were mainly driven by regulatory catalysts. The conclusion is that Coinbase may still work as a tactical vehicle for betting on regulatory events such as Clarity, but structural pressure from weaker altcoin turnover, rising competition and a falling take rate makes the stock less compelling as a four-year-plus holding.

Circle’s core business is still easy to grasp: users hold USDC, and the company earns interest on reserves invested mainly in short-dated U.S. Treasuries, money market funds, and cash-like assets. What is harder to parse is the “other revenue” line in Circle’s filings, which management has used to support a broader pitch that the company should be valued as an internet financial platform rather than only as a stablecoin issuer tied to reserve yields. According to the company’s SEC disclosures cited in the source material, that line combines several very different kinds of revenue: one-time blockchain integration fees, recurring maintenance and subscription payments, software licensing, USYC fund management fees, redemption fees tied to Circle-issued assets, blockchain rewards, transaction revenue from infrastructure such as Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol, and Arc-related accounting revenue from token presales. That mix matters because growth in the line item does not automatically mean growth in predictable, high-quality recurring income. The article tracks Circle’s other revenue across 2025 Q4, 2026 Q1, and 2026 Q2, reviews which chains were launched in each period, and highlights why quarterly figures can be uneven. It also argues that the higher 2026 guidance appears to include about $160 million of ARC token presale revenue, a category that should not be treated the same way as recurring platform income when investors assess CRCL.

Seventeen of the largest U.S. banks have said The Clearing House will build on-chain clearing and settlement for tokenized deposits, linked to RTP and CHIPS for round-the-clock operation. The article argues that this is not simply a blockchain story. It is a liquidity story, centered on netting and liquidity-saving mechanisms that let banks settle large payment flows with far less prefunded cash than a gross, real-time model requires. CHIPS, for example, settles about $2 trillion a day with roughly $96 billion of prefunded liquidity, versus an estimated $442 billion under transaction-by-transaction gross settlement, according to the figures cited in the piece. That contrast sits at the core of the stablecoin debate. Stablecoins can move in seconds, but they generally require 100% prefunding. The article says this tradeoff resembles RTP, which also gives up netting in favor of prefunded instant settlement. At the same time, stablecoins have gained traction in areas traditional rails do not cover well: Global South payment corridors, weekends, merchant settlement, and access to transferable dollars outside the U.S. banking system. The piece also argues that stablecoins are not inherently incapable of netting. What is missing is clearing infrastructure around par exchange, redemption, and multilateral net settlement. It points to firms including Better Money Company, Ubyx, Glacis Labs, Cycles, and Circle’s CPN as signs that a token-era clearing layer is beginning to take shape.

Circle reported 2026 second-quarter revenue and reserve income of $701 million before the U.S. market opened on Aug. 5, up 7% from a year earlier but below Wall Street consensus of roughly $713 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $143 million, up 8%, while diluted EPS was $0.18, above the expected $0.16. Net income reached $48.2 million, compared with a $482.1 million loss in the prior-year period, which the company said was largely due to a one-time stock-based compensation expense tied to its IPO in the second quarter of last year. USDC ending circulation stood at $73.3 billion, up 19% year over year, while on-chain transaction volume rose 151% to $14.8 trillion. Circle also highlighted new regulatory approvals, growth in CPN and Agent Stack, and the upcoming Sept. 16 public mainnet launch of Arc. On the earnings call, management said the Coinbase distribution agreement had been renewed on existing terms, discussed revenue sharing with Hyperliquid, and detailed ARC token presale figures, including about $242 million raised and roughly $180 million expected to be recognized as 2026 revenue.

Circle Internet Group reported second-quarter revenue and reserve income of $701 million, up 7% year over year, with net income from continuing operations reaching $48 million after a loss in the prior-year period. The company also posted adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, while quarter-end USDC circulation stood at $73.3 billion and on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion. The numbers showed that Circle still depends heavily on USDC supply and interest rates, even as growth in circulation slowed and net outflows appeared during the quarter. At the same time, the company used its earnings report to highlight a broader push into regulated financial infrastructure, including the Sept. 16 launch of Arc mainnet, an expanding Circle Payments Network, Agent Stack products, and new trust-bank approvals in the U.S. The market response to CRCL remains split. Morgan Stanley cut its rating and target price, citing slower USDC growth and rising distribution costs, while TD Cowen initiated coverage with a buy rating. Investors are also watching the proposed CLARITY Act and upcoming September catalysts as they assess whether Circle’s longer-term infrastructure strategy can offset near-term pressure on reserve-driven earnings.

Circle said its public Arc blockchain mainnet will go live on Sept. 16, and the company used its second-quarter earnings release to unveil a founding validator group dominated by traditional finance names. The list includes BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered, Sumitomo Corporation and Visa, all joining Circle in securing the network. Circle said BlackRock is expected to bring its tokenized money market fund BUIDL to Arc, while DTCC plans to support tokenization of assets it custodies in the second half of 2027. The company also said Arc is already in private mainnet with more than 100 builders, and that its testnet has processed more than 500 million transactions across nearly 3 million wallets. On the earnings side, Circle reported $701 million in total revenue and reserve income, $48 million in net income, and a 19% rise in USDC circulation to $73.3 billion. It also said the OCC gave final approval for Circle National Trust and that its payments network reached $14.7 billion in annualized transaction volume.

Circle’s fiscal 2026 second-quarter report offered material for both bulls and bears. The stablecoin issuer posted $701 million in total revenue and reserve income, below the $717 million consensus, while net income from continuing operations came in at $48 million, ahead of the $43 million expected. USDC’s average circulation kept rising, but quarter-end supply fell to $73.3 billion from $77.0 billion in the prior quarter, and its share of dollar stablecoins slipped to 27%. The report also showed that reserve income remained the main earnings engine at $668 million, while “other revenue” rose sharply year over year but fell sequentially. Circle lifted its full-year outlook for that line to $310 million-$330 million, noting that the guidance includes recognized ARC token presale revenue. RLDC reached $289 million and RLDC margin held at 41%, supported by slower growth in distribution and transaction costs. On the business side, Circle set Sept. 16 for the Arc mainnet launch, named BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Visa, Mastercard and Standard Chartered among the initial validators, and reported continued expansion at Circle Payments Network. The company also said it had secured OCC approval to establish Circle National Trust, while its Circle New York Trust application was approved by NYDFS. Taken together, the quarter showed Circle still moving toward a platform model, but it did not settle the debate over whether that strategy can produce durable non-interest revenue.

Circle published its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 5. Total revenue and reserve income came to $701 million, up 7% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $143 million, up 8%. Net income from continuing operations was $48 million, a $530 million improvement from a year earlier. USDC circulation hit $73.3 billion at quarter-end, a 19% annual gain, and on-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, up 151%. Separately, Circle confirmed that its Arc public blockchain will launch mainnet on September 16, with validators including BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Mastercard, Visa, and Standard Chartered. BlackRock plans to deploy its BUIDL fund on Arc, and DTCC will support tokenization of DTC-custodied assets there. Circle also won final OCC approval to establish Circle National Trust, becoming one of the first stablecoin issuers with a U.S. federal bank charter, and received NYDFS approval for Circle New York Trust. On payments, CPN's 30-day annualized transaction volume rose to $14.7 billion, up 76% quarter over quarter, and connected financial institutions increased to 175, up 29%.