Lao Bai on the next crypto cycle: VC labels fade, prediction markets are overheated, and Perp DEX competition narrows behind Hyperliquid
Crypto investor and researcher Lao Bai used a nearly two-hour conversation with 168X to lay out a blunt view of where the industry stands in August 2026 and what may still matter in the next cycle. His argument starts from the current washout: exchanges such as BitMEX and BitMart have stopped trading operations, former star products including Zapper and Fantasy Top are shutting down, and both talent and capital are drifting toward AI. In that setting, he says crypto has already “won” in one sense — Bitcoin ETFs exist, stablecoins have become important dollar infrastructure, traditional firms are building on-chain rails, and tokenized real-world assets are entering mainstream finance — yet many old participants still feel they lost because the era of effortless altcoin upside is gone. Lao Bai’s core judgments are sharp. He says issuing tokens is closer to taking on liabilities than raising capital. He expects the idea of a standalone “crypto VC” to gradually disappear as blockchain becomes embedded infrastructure rather than a self-contained sector. He sees stablecoins and perpetual futures as crypto’s two strongest native inventions, while arguing that prediction markets have genuine product-market fit but a much lower ceiling than perpetuals. On market structure, he expects Perp DEXs to consolidate into only a handful of winners, with Hyperliquid in the top tier and names such as Aster, Lighter, edgeX and Variational competing below it. He also argues exchanges should stop thinking of themselves as crypto-only venues and instead evolve toward a global risk-asset super app — a model he says Robinhood best represents today.
