K33 Research said on July 29 that Bitcoin spent the past week trading in a tight $60,000 to $66,000 range, with activity across major market segments remaining subdued. The firm said average daily spot volume in July was only about $2.2 billion, while open interest on CME was near multi-year lows. It also said perpetual futures open interest was flat at roughly 300,000 BTC. According to K33, Bitcoin’s trading volume for July marked its lowest reading since November 2023. The update points to a market that remained range-bound through the week, with both spot and derivatives participation showing limited expansion during the month.

A MarsBit analysis says Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of its bear market after nine straight months of price declines, with several on-chain signals lining up around a late-cycle bottoming process. The piece, written by Ashrith Rao and translated by Saoirse for Foresight News, highlights three features of the current market: a key crossover between long-term holder and short-term holder cost bases, an unusually tight circulating supply, and a long period of capitulation by speculative capital. The report says short-term holders’ average cost basis has fallen from about $112,500 to $69,000 since the cycle high, while long-term holder positioning has stayed firm. Alphractal data cited in the article shows long-term holders now control 84% of Bitcoin supply, leaving only 16% as liquid supply for short-term traders. CryptoQuant data cited in the same piece adds that long-term holders accumulated 1.29 million BTC in May, the largest six-year increase. At the same time, the article argues the market has not yet produced a clear entry signal. K33 data shows the share of circulating supply held at a loss has fallen from above 50% on June 5 to 46%, while CryptoQuant’s realized cap variance Z-score stands at -2.35. Still, momentum indicators remain weak, bullish sentiment is only 20 versus a 60 threshold mentioned in the report, and key resistance levels have yet to be reclaimed.

A broad set of crypto and AI developments landed over the past day, spanning regulation, market structure, fundraising, protocol upgrades and security incidents. Kenya cut the paid-in capital requirement for stablecoin issuers by 40% to about $2.32 million while keeping strict reserve and redemption rules in place. Russia’s central bank published its first draft framework for organized trading in digital assets, and Myanmar passed a cybercrime law that allows life sentences for crypto-related fraud. In the U.S., Senate Republicans are still trying to move the Clarity Act before the August recess, though ethics provisions and bank lobbying remain major obstacles. On the corporate side, PayPal posted better-than-expected second-quarter results and did not address a previously reported buyout approach. Luno and Visa both outlined layoffs tied to restructuring and capital allocation, while Morgan Stanley Investment Management rolled out exchange-traded products tied to Ethereum and Solana. Zcash activated its Ironwood NU6.3 upgrade, Layer 2 TVL on Ethereum fell to its lowest level since 2023, and Bitcoin briefly dropped below $63,000 as AI and semiconductor weakness spilled into crypto. Security reports also stayed in focus, with Blockaid saying crypto losses from hacks topped $1 billion in the first half of 2026 and several fresh token incidents reported across the market.

Analysts cited by CoinDesk say Bitcoin could benefit if the Federal Reserve delivers any dovish signal at Wednesday’s policy meeting, even as markets remain sharply divided on the rate decision itself. CME FedWatch data shows a 70% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged and a 30% probability of a surprise 25-basis-point hike. Block Scholes analyst Thahbib Rahman said reduced use of forward guidance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has added to uncertainty, making this FOMC meeting one of the most uncertain in years. Rahman said any dovish signal could help Bitcoin extend its relative outperformance. The report also pointed to diverging market performance in July. Bitcoin is up about 6% so far this month, while the S&P 500 is roughly flat and the semiconductor sector has fallen nearly 20%. Still, K33 Research head of research Vetle Lunde said the impact of this week’s FOMC meeting on BTC may be limited, arguing that Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has weakened as the Nasdaq had been strong and positioning became stretched while BTC continued to consolidate near multi-year lows.

Several long-dormant Bitcoin wallets moved sizable holdings in mid-to-late July, reviving a familiar market question: are old coins finally becoming sell pressure, or are holders simply reorganizing custody? On July 13, a wallet inactive since October 2018 moved 2,931 BTC worth about $188 million at the time, with Arkham-tracked flows showing the coins went to a fresh address rather than an exchange. On July 16, another address dormant for more than eight years transferred 5,908 BTC worth roughly $383 million, again to an unmarked new wallet. A third move followed on July 20, when a five-year dormant address shifted 700 BTC valued at about $45.3 million. The common thread across all three transactions is what did not happen: none of the funds were shown entering known centralized exchanges at the time of reporting. That matters because wallet movement alone does not equal market selling. Several cited reports also noted that at least one of the larger transfers moved coins from an older legacy address format to a bc1q address, a pattern consistent with wallet upgrades and lower-fee transaction standards. Broader supply data in the source points the same way. Galaxy Research said old-coin reactivation in 2026 is expected to be less than half of 2025 levels, while K33 data cited by KuCoin showed long-term holders control about 79% of circulating supply, the highest on record. For now, the more meaningful signal is not the transfer itself, but whether these coins later make their way onto exchanges.

Bitcoin funding rates have been negative for 46 straight days, the longest stretch since the 2023 FTX crash. Pepeto presale raised over $9.13M with a confirmed Binance listing. LINK and AVAX trade far below peaks but offer limited upside compared to presale-to-exchange multiples.

Bitcoin fell 17% and Ether dropped 22% this week, marking the biggest weekly loss since the FTX crash in November 2022. The crypto market lost about $400 billion in total value, settling at around $2 trillion. Four factors triggered the sell-off: Strategy's first Bitcoin sale, ETF outflows pivoting to AI, Zcash's AI-driven vulnerability crash, and strong U.S. jobs data reviving rate hike fears.

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are betting Bitcoin's correction is not over, with a 66% to 67% chance of falling below $55,000. Capital has not fully exited crypto, shifting instead into stablecoins such as USDT and USDC.