Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that several officials leaned toward raising interest rates last month, while many said policy may need to be tightened further if inflation does not move lower. The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, voted 9-3 to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at the July meeting. Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissented and preferred a 25 basis point increase. Two regional Fed presidents who were not voting members in July, Schmid and Musalem, later said they also would have supported a hike had they been able to vote. The minutes said uncertainty continued to weigh heavily on officials’ judgment, and participants repeated that their reading of incoming data would remain a key part of policy discussions. Much of the meeting’s debate focused on differing views over the path of inflation. According to the minutes, most participants expected inflation to ease gradually over the rest of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases fade, though many also said the risk of inflation staying elevated remained present.

The week of Aug. 17-23 is packed with events that could draw close attention from crypto traders, policymakers, and market infrastructure operators. On Aug. 19, President Donald Trump is expected to attend a White House gathering of crypto and prediction-market executives, with CEOs from Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi also set to join, according to CoinDesk. The event is expected to warm up the first formal meeting of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s newly formed Innovation Advisory Committee. A day later, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its July policy meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. Markets will be looking for clues on how many officials saw a case for a rate hike and what evidence could shift the broader committee. Elsewhere, South Korea will roll out tighter rules for single-stock leveraged products and expand review standards for crypto operator registration. The same week also includes a series of exchange and network updates, including Binance delistings and precision changes, Coinbase product launches and support changes, Upbit service suspensions, a planned bitcoin eCash hard fork, and Manus data migration steps tied to its return as an independent company.

JPMorgan’s global markets strategy team has moved forward its call for the next Federal Reserve rate hike, now expecting it in December instead of the third quarter of 2027. The bank also said September cannot be ruled out if inflation heats up again quickly. In its review of past tightening cycles, JPMorgan noted that commodities have posted positive returns in every Fed hiking cycle since 1990 except the latest one, from March 2022 to July 2023, when the sector fell about 14%. The report argues that the monetary backdrop may resemble 1999, when the Fed delivered a mid-cycle adjustment, but the structure of the commodity market looks much closer to 2022. In JPMorgan’s view, that raises the risk that a fading supply disruption premium could once again collide with tighter financial conditions and weigh on the asset class during any coming hiking phase. The bank breaks that view down across sectors. It says energy will depend heavily on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Chinese oil demand, precious metals are most exposed to a sharper repricing of Fed tightening, and base metals still look firm for now, though that outlook remains sensitive to manufacturing PMI trends and the path of the U.S. dollar.

The upcoming U.S. July consumer price index report is taking on added weight as Federal Reserve officials signal a firmer stance on inflation and energy supply risks complicate the policy outlook. According to BlockBeats, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she would support a rate hike in September if incoming data show that further tightening is needed. That follows similar restrictive-policy remarks from Hammack, Logan and Kashkari. Consensus expectations currently point to July core CPI rising 2.5% year over year, down from 2.6%, while the monthly reading is seen rebounding to 0.2% from 0%. If those numbers come in as expected, inflation would still be easing, but only gradually and still above the Fed’s 2% target. A hotter reading could intensify concerns inside the central bank that inflation is staying elevated for too long. Bitunix analysts said the policy challenge is being made harder by energy supply disruptions. The EIA expects related supply interruptions could last through the end of 2026, while Red Sea shipping risks persist and attacks on Russian energy transport facilities in the Black Sea have affected CPC crude exports. In crypto markets, ETF flows show mixed positioning: about $245 million of net inflows over the past week and $1.677 billion over the past month, but net outflows of roughly $6.898 billion over the past quarter.

A Bitunix analyst said softer U.S. labor data has not changed the Federal Reserve’s policy tone, with several Fed officials still signaling that another rate hike remains possible if inflation does not keep improving. The view comes after U.S. July ADP payrolls rose by 44,000, a reading cited as evidence that the labor market is cooling, even as policymakers including Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook and Mary Daly kept a hawkish stance. The analysis also pointed to the U.S. Treasury’s decision to keep its bond buyback and issuance pace unchanged, leaving markets to absorb a heavy supply of Treasurys in the near term. With long-dated yields staying elevated, financial conditions are still tightening through market channels. In that framework, the repricing of global assets is being driven not only by the Fed’s rate path, but also by government borrowing needs, long-end yields and wider risk premiums. For crypto, the analyst said spot ETF flows show short-term institutional replenishment of risk exposure, with net inflows of $475 million over the past week and $922 million over the past month. Still, net outflows over the past quarter totaled $7.932 billion, suggesting large investors remain cautious on overall positioning.

U.S. markets split sharply overnight as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to log a third straight record close, while the Nasdaq fell 0.83% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% under pressure from weaker technology shares. Gold was the standout move, with spot prices jumping more than 4.2% in a single session, the biggest daily gain in five months, reclaiming the 50-day moving average and breaking above $4,300 an ounce for the first time since June 18. Bloomberg analyst Cameron Crise said the move ran far outside traditional models and pointed to concentrated CTA short-covering around the $4,200 level, combined with reduced long positioning by managed funds. Central bank buying remained a key support, with World Gold Council data showing record net purchases in the second quarter, including 51 tons by Poland and 33 tons by China. In equities, Nvidia rose 3.43% for a fifth straight gain, but AMD, Google and SpaceX fell sharply. SanDisk and Western Digital also dropped after hours as strong reported results were overshadowed by softer-than-expected forward guidance tied to elevated expectations for the AI storage cycle.

According to a ChainCatcher news flash, China's Ministry of Commerce has decided to take countermeasures against a US-based compliance testing company. The ministry has also moved to strengthen export controls on drone-related dual-use items. On the market front, data from Gate shows that spot gold and silver have both surged over 4%, and gold once climbed to above $4,260. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari made remarks indicating that now is the time to gradually raise rates, although he does not support a large-scale increase. In regional developments, Iran and Oman are said to be nearing an agreement on a strait, and the prospective new waterway could be used for two to four months.

Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve and a 2026 voting member of the FOMC, said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank should begin raising interest rates gradually in order to bring down inflation and avoid the need for sharper hikes later. Speaking to CNBC, he pointed to strong corporate earnings and resilient consumer and labor markets, saying there is little evidence that monetary policy has become significantly restrictive. Kashkari was one of three voters who supported a quarter percentage point rate hike at last week's FOMC meeting. He said he is not advocating aggressive increases, preferring a 'step-by-step' approach to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. He also said he is unsure what the FOMC will do at its September meeting and that incoming data will be critical. Kashkari added that Fed Chairman Warsh has not pressured him, telling him to 'do what you think is right for the economy.'