Bitcoin's LTH-SOPR indicator has dropped below 1.0, per CryptoQuant, signaling long-term holders are realizing losses. The move is often seen as a capitulation phase.
Bitcoin’s on-chain profit profile is improving, but the latest data still falls short of confirming that a new bull cycle has begun. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has climbed to 57.5%, up sharply from the June 30 low of 46.2% and now approaching 60%. The metric measures the share of BTC supply currently held above cost basis. Even so, historical cycle signals suggest that a bear market is usually considered over only when two conditions are met at the same time: the 30-day simple moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR stays above 1 for several weeks without breaking down, and Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit remains above 64%. Analysts noted that this cycle has already seen one false breakout. From April 28 to June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 straight days, while Supply in Profit briefly reached 67%, before the market pulled back again. At present, the long-term holder 30-day SMA has remained below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, leaving a key risk signal in place.
Bitcoin remains near $60,000 after a sharp weekly drop. Traders are watching support at $58,000, resistance between $64,000 and $66,000, Strategy-related pressure, and on-chain signals that resemble past accumulation phases.
CryptoQuant data shows BTC LTH-SOPR falling to 0.88, the first sub-1 level since the 2023 bear market. Daily inflows to Binance from LTHs have doubled the annual average, signaling heightened selling pressure.
On-chain analyst Murphy highlights Bitcoin long-term holders reaching a critical capitulation point, with key profitability indicators falling to 1. Historically, such events often precede the final violent drop of a bear market, setting the stage for recovery.
Bitcoin is trading around $59,600, down over 53% from its 2025 peak. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 16 (extreme fear), and the Rainbow Chart has entered the 'Bitcoin is dead' zone. MVRV sits at 1.13, near the realized price of ~$53,400. The UTXO profit/loss ratio and long-term holder SOPR have both hit historical adjustment lows. However, Bitcoin ETFs continue to see net outflows, and the realized price has not yet been decisively breached. This article dissects 12 key metrics to assess the probability of a bottom, concluding that while valuation and sentiment indicators suggest an undervalued zone, confirmation requires ETF inflows and chain-based signals to turn positive.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $59,600, down approximately 53% from its 2025 peak. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 16 (extreme fear), MVRV is around 1.13, realized price is about $53,400, UTXO profit/loss ratio is at cyclical lows, and long-term holder SOPR has turned negative. Despite these extreme valuation signals, the bottom has not been fully confirmed due to persistent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and the fact that the price has not yet broken below the realized price. Confirmation requires ETF inflows turning positive and SOPR recovering.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $59,600, down 53% from its 2025 all-time high. Multiple indicators show historically low valuations: Fear & Greed Index at 16 (extreme fear), Rainbow Chart in the 'Bitcoin is dead' zone, MVRV at 1.13, realized price at $53,400, UTXO profit/loss ratio at adjustment lows, and long-term holder SOPR turning negative. However, the bottom is not yet fully confirmed as ETF net outflows continue and the realized price has not been breached. This article breaks down 12 core data indicators to analyze market positioning and highlights necessary confirmation signals such as ETF inflow reversal and SOPR recovery.
