Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin

2026-09-13 07:33:00

Darkfost says long-term holder activity has ticked up, but 2026 remains broadly quiet

Odaily, citing data tracked by Darkfost, said the current Bitcoin cycle may be the most active one so far for long-term holders. The observation is based on the CDD heatmap, a metric that measures how long BTC was held before being spent or transferred. In many cases, transfers by long-term holders are associated with selling intent, though Darkfost noted that a rise in CDD does not appear only near market tops and can also reflect capitulation by some holders. The report added that stronger activity in this cycle may be linked to extra market liquidity from spot ETFs and companies building Bitcoin treasury reserves. It also pointed to Coinbase’s earlier transfer of 800,000 BTC, including a large amount that had been held for more than six months, as an example of an occasional event that can push CDD higher for a short period. For now, with Bitcoin having risen recently, long-term holder activity has increased slightly, possibly as some holders seek quick profits. Even so, Darkfost said overall activity in 2026 remains relatively calm, with long-term holders still waiting.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-13 00:43:43

CryptoQuant says Bitcoin needs a break above $81,700 to confirm a new bull market

Bitcoin needs to clear roughly $81,700 to confirm a fresh bull market, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. He said BTC has paused after gaining 24% over the past two weeks and is now trading in a $76,000 to $82,000 range. While the broader trend remains bullish in his view, failure to move above the 365-day moving average near $81,700 could leave the asset stuck in consolidation. Moreno also pointed to on-chain data showing that the nearest and most important supply resistance sits between $77,100 and $80,200. In that zone, long-term holders sold as many as 539,000 BTC within 30 days earlier this year. Above that, the next resistance levels are $83,600 and $88,700, with the latter historically associated with profit-taking by active traders. On the downside, Moreno said the 200-day moving average near $70,000 may act as support, while another support band lies between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders have accumulated about 476,000 BTC this year.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-11 09:13:55

Bitcoin stalls below $86,000 as Glassnode sees a three-way resistance cluster

Bitcoin is consolidating just below a resistance zone that Glassnode says is backed by three separate data sets: long-term holder cost basis, futures liquidation heatmaps, and the break-even level for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. In the past 21 trading days, BTC has gained 23%, outperforming the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 over that period, though it remains down 10% since January. The report argues that the rally has repaired part of the damage from the first half of the year, but has not yet erased it. Glassnode places the ceiling at $83,000 to $86,000. Spot price set a higher high than in August on Sept. 3, 2026, but stopped 1.5% below the lower bound of that range and then stabilized slightly below $80,000. About 1.07 million BTC were acquired between $83,000 and $86,000, almost all by long-term holders, with the largest single price bucket near $85,000. The same band also appears on the BTC futures liquidation heatmap, where short-side liquidation levels between $82,000 and $86,000 have grown 21% since the Aug. 19, 2026 squeeze, and in the U.S. spot ETF complex, whose aggregate break-even is close to $86,000. The report also says sellers have not returned in force. Sell-Side Risk Ratio has fallen to 7 basis points on a seven-day basis, less than half the August peak of 16 basis points, while long-term holders’ share of realized profit has dropped from 88% to 47%. At the same time, altcoins have risen in dollar terms but have not taken market share from Bitcoin at a pace seen before several prior cycle tops.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-11 17:08:13

Analyst says Bitcoin faces layered selling pressure near $82,000

Analyst Murphy said Bitcoin’s difficulty in breaking above $82,000 may be explained by its holder distribution. Short-term holder (STH) supply is concentrated between $59,000 and $81,000, meaning a move above $82,000 would leave that group broadly in profit and could trigger profit-taking from short-term speculative capital. Long-term holder (LTH) supply is spread across the full price range, but its biggest concentration sits around $81,000 to $82,000, where some holders who were previously trapped may choose to exit near breakeven. Murphy also said super whales holding more than 100,000 BTC are largely clustered between $78,000 and $82,000, aside from two concentration points near $40,000. Based on that structure, he said Bitcoin does face short-term resistance at $82,000, and that the market needs more time to absorb disagreement and available supply before any clean breakout can develop.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-10 07:55:40

Bitcoin nears the $83,000-$86,000 cost wall as sell pressure fades and short-side fuel builds

Bitcoin is moving back toward a closely watched resistance band, with three separate data sets pointing to roughly the same area: long-term holder cost basis, futures liquidation maps, and the break-even level for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings. According to Glassnode, that cluster sits between $83,000 and $86,000, and spot price recently stopped just 1.5% below the lower end of the range. The report says Bitcoin gained 23% over the past 21 trading days, outperforming major equity benchmarks over that stretch, yet it remains down 10% since January. At the macro level, core inflation in the U.S. has cooled to 2.5%, a two-year low, while inflation expectations remain at 3.6%. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.8%, matching a two-year high, leaving rates elevated even as observed inflation softens. Glassnode also argues that the current advance differs from August because visible sell-side pressure has not returned in force. Its seller risk ratio fell to 7 basis points on a seven-day average, less than half the 16 basis points seen at the August peak, while long-term holders accounted for a much smaller share of realized profit. The firm adds that altcoins, despite a 21% rise in aggregate market capitalization over the past month, have not taken market share from Bitcoin in the way often seen before prior cycle tops.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-10 09:36:42

Bitcoin sell-side risk drops to rare lows as profit-taking cools and ETF buyers remain below breakeven

Bitcoin sell-side risk has fallen back to one of its lowest levels on record, according to new data from Glassnode, even as BTC has held on to most of its 25% gain from August. The firm said the sell-side risk ratio, or SSRR, dropped to 7 from 16 in September after briefly rising as Bitcoin pushed above $80,000 in late August. Lower readings, Glassnode said, are usually associated with macro bottoms, accumulation periods and low-risk selling conditions. The data also points to softer profit realization from long-term holders. Glassnode said the share of realized profit attributed to long-term holders fell to 47% from 88% at the August peak, while the profit spike recorded on Sept. 3, 2026 was less than half the size of August’s move. At the same time, US spot Bitcoin ETF investors are still underwater on an aggregate basis. Glassnode estimates they would return to aggregate profit around $86,000, a level below which Bitcoin has closed for the past 229 sessions, leaving paper losses near $3.9 billion.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-08 09:35:12

BTC Long-Term Holder Supply Share Rises During Correction, Signaling Shift from Short-Term Speculators

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost notes that the proportion of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders (holding >6 months) has increased significantly during the recent correction after breaking $80,000. This suggests that coins bought on the dip are being held rather than quickly traded, reflecting reduced trading appetite and a preference for long-term holding. The analyst views this as a positive signal for building a stronger support base, though it does not indicate an immediate reversal. The bottom is slowly forming, and the migration of coin age is part of the process.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-08 09:55:20

Glassnode: Bitcoin Low Volatility Not Due to Market Cap, but Long-Term Holders Locking Supply

Glassnode’s latest analysis shows that Bitcoin’s low volatility is driven by long-term holders (LTH) locking up supply, not by market cap growth. A regression model reveals LTH supply ratio explains 19-20% of realized volatility, far exceeding market cap’s 3.5%. The current calm is a fragile, supply-driven homeostasis that could break if LTHs start selling.

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