CryptoQuant says Bitcoin’s realized price near $55,000 likely marks the ultimate bear market floor, but six on-chain indicators still have not reached historical bottom zones and the basing process may take months.
Bitwise says Bitcoin’s MVRV sits at 1.42, below much of its historical range, while the Nasdaq 100’s P/B is near record highs. The firm and other analysts say the gap could signal changing market structure for BTC.
XRP climbed to $1.14 after rebounding from its July 1 low, with buying returning near key support. Santiment data showed sharply negative MVRV readings and a one-day jump of 4,941 new XRP Ledger wallets.
CryptoQuant reported Bitcoin’s Bull Score dropped to 0/10 for the first time since January 2022, with all ten on-chain components below trend and market momentum showing clear weakness.
Bitcoin fell 45% from its 2025 peak, three monthly red candles, record ETF outflows. Bears cite cycle history and supply risk; bulls see institutional capital and macro tailwind.
Glassnode says Bitcoin entered 2026 with easing profit-taking pressure, renewed spot ETF inflows, recovering futures open interest, and a clearer bullish tilt in options. Premium behavior around $95,000 calls suggests traders are holding upside exposure rather than rushing to take profits.
Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely found a cycle bottom and argues the current 40% drawdown reflects weak sentiment, not a structural break. The firm kept its $150,000 target for the end of 2026.
Bitcoin stayed above $80,000 while crypto liquidations exceeded $400 million in 24 hours. CME open interest remains concentrated at $78,000, $80,300, and $84,000, with traders also watching oil, US-Iran tensions, inflation data, and Fed rate expectations.
