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Bitcoin
2026-09-26 13:57:08

Benson Sun says Bitcoin may climb in a slow bull cycle, with institutional divergence as a key warning sign

Crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun said he expects Bitcoin to post a slower, step-by-step bull run in this cycle rather than a sharp blow-off top like those seen in 2013 and 2017. In his view, the market may show several local topping signals before a true cycle peak arrives. Sun argued that since 2021, the main source of BTC demand has been shifting away from retail investors toward institutions such as public companies, spot ETF buyers, and corporate treasuries. Because these players mainly buy spot, while some capital also runs delta-neutral arbitrage strategies, traditional cycle-top indicators such as funding rates and the MVRV Z-Score may not return to past extremes. He said a more likely topping pattern in the current market would be fading institutional follow-through rather than fully overheated retail sentiment. To track that, he uses an Institutional Liquidity Index, or ILI, which references overall U.S. dollar liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and net Bitcoin ETF flows. A yellow divergence appears when BTC makes a rolling 30-day high without a corresponding rise in ILI. A red divergence appears when BTC breaks an all-time high while ILI diverges and stays below 50. Sun said he uses repeated yellow divergences to reduce altcoin exposure and leverage, then raise BTC allocation over time. If a red divergence appears, he said he would stop participating.

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Benson Sun says Bitcoin may climb in a slow bull cycle, with institutional divergence as a key warning sign
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