Bitcoin2026-10-20 13:02:18Analyst says Bitcoin market remains hesitant as investor confidence rebuildsCrypto market analyst Darkfost said on Oct. 20 that Bitcoin is still in a phase marked by weak investor confidence and hesitation from both buyers and sellers. He pointed to the share of supply in profit, which has fallen back to 53.8% after briefly moving above 60%, leaving the metric close to the 50% break-even line. The indicator excludes Bitcoin held for more than 10 years in an effort to better reflect conditions in the actively circulating market. Darkfost said this pattern is not unusual near the end of a bear market. After a sell-off and capitulation phase pushes the share of supply in profit below 40%, the market often needs time before it can climb back above 50%. In his view, confidence recovery and the formation of fresh demand do not happen quickly, and the market still needs investor behavior to stabilize before profitability conditions can improve on a sustained basis.340
Bitcoin2026-09-11 08:04:43CryptoQuant says Bitcoin supply in profit has rebounded to 69%CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said on-chain data shows the share of Bitcoin supply held at a profit has climbed from 47% at the end of June to 69%, moving out of a market pressure zone often seen in past cycles. He also pointed to a sharp reversal in the indicator’s 90-day change, which moved from -19% in early August to +41%. According to Adler, that shift ranks among the faster recoveries seen in Bitcoin’s history. The figures were cited in a post referenced by ChainCatcher.1050
Bitcoin2026-09-11 08:02:46Analyst says Bitcoin profit supply rose to 69% after squeeze-driven repricingBitcoin’s supply in profit has climbed to 69%, with a 90-day change of +41%, according to crypto analyst @AxelAdlerJr. He said the move corresponds to a BTC price of about $77,000 and shows how the recent rebound has sharply increased the share of holders sitting on gains. Adler argued that a large part of recent buying came from mechanical repricing after a short squeeze rather than from sustained spot demand. In his view, the current move is not being driven mainly by steady fresh spot accumulation. He also pointed to historical patterns, saying that this kind of fast upward momentum has often faded quickly. Based on that comparison, he said the market is more prone to either give back part of the move or enter a sideways consolidation phase after the initial push.1010
Bitcoin2026-08-05 13:14:55CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Supply-in-Profit Ratio Near 52%, Bear Market May Be in Final StageCryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on X that bitcoin's supply in profit ratio is around 52%, meaning that nearly half of all bitcoin holdings are currently in a loss position and the market is close to a key turning point in the bear cycle. He argues that historically, in every bear market, this ratio has eventually fallen below 50% — a phase where loss-making coins make up the majority — which usually signals that market pressure has been further released and marks an important late-stage bear market indicator. On-chain data shows the metric briefly dipped under 50% in June and July this year, but remained near the critical level overall, suggesting the current bear cycle has entered a deeper stage. Darkfost believes bitcoin may be entering the final stage of the bear market, no matter where the eventual price bottom forms. He cautions, however, that the supply-in-profit ratio only reflects the cost structure of on-chain holdings and cannot on its own determine the market bottom. Capital flows, macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment should also be monitored, according to the analyst.1900
Bitcoin2026-07-24 10:02:20Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rises to 57.5%, but Bull Market Confirmation Is Still PrematureBitcoin’s on-chain profit profile is improving, but the latest data still falls short of confirming that a new bull cycle has begun. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has climbed to 57.5%, up sharply from the June 30 low of 46.2% and now approaching 60%. The metric measures the share of BTC supply currently held above cost basis. Even so, historical cycle signals suggest that a bear market is usually considered over only when two conditions are met at the same time: the 30-day simple moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR stays above 1 for several weeks without breaking down, and Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit remains above 64%. Analysts noted that this cycle has already seen one false breakout. From April 28 to June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 straight days, while Supply in Profit briefly reached 67%, before the market pulled back again. At present, the long-term holder 30-day SMA has remained below 1 for more than 50 consecutive days, leaving a key risk signal in place.2020
Bitcoin2026-07-17 14:12:18ARK says Bitcoin supply in loss has overtaken supply in profit for the first time since the 2022 bear-market bottomARK Invest said Bitcoin’s share of supply in profit fell to about 46% in the second quarter from roughly 57%, while the share of supply in loss rose to about 54% from around 43%. That marks the first time since the 2022 bear-market bottom that loss-making Bitcoin supply has exceeded profit-making supply. According to ARK, similar crossovers have historically appeared near cycle lows. The firm added that a rising share of coins held at a loss may signal that seller pressure is running out. The update was cited by Odaily, which referenced Bitcoin News.1490
Bitcoin2026-06-10 11:35:55CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Profit Supply Ratio Nears 45% ThresholdCryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s percentage of supply in profit is approaching the key 45% threshold, a level historically linked to periods of heavy market stress and large-scale capitulation risk.1750
