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ARK says Bitcoin supply in loss has overtaken supply in profit for the first time since the 2022 bear-market bottom
semiconductor
2026-07-15 02:32:57

AI-driven memory boom may peak by 2027 or 2028, TechFlowPost analysis says

A market analysis published by TechFlowPost argues that the semiconductor industry, especially memory, is going through an expansion unlike anything seen in the past three decades. Citing data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) and TrendForce, author Takashi Yunokami says monthly memory shipments surged from roughly $5.6 billion in 2016 to $63.3 billion in May 2026, while year-over-year growth hit 285%, far above prior memory-cycle peaks. The article says the current boom is being powered not only by stronger demand, but by an extraordinary rise in pricing. DRAM spot prices reportedly climbed from $4.70 in early 2025 to $46.00 recently, while NAND wafer prices rose from $2.40 to $25.00. That pricing surge, in the author’s view, explains much of the market’s sharp revenue expansion. Yunokami traces the demand shock back to massive capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta, whose combined capex is projected at $755 billion in 2026. He argues that AI data centers are absorbing GPUs, HBM, DRAM, NAND and SSD supply, squeezing consumer electronics markets such as PCs and smartphones. Still, the piece is not a bullish call. Looking back over roughly 35 years of memory-market history, Yunokami says periods of continuous positive annual growth have never lasted more than five years. Based on that pattern, he argues the current memory upcycle, which began from the 2023 trough, could end by 2028 at the latest and possibly peak in 2027, with a deeper downturn likely to follow.

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AI-driven memory boom may peak by 2027 or 2028, TechFlowPost analysis says