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Bitunix
2026-08-21 09:46:24

Bitunix Analyst Says Treasury Bond Buybacks, Fed Inflation Stance Drive Nearly 20% BTC Rally

On Aug. 21, a Bitunix analyst said the U.S. Treasury has been expanding buybacks of longer-dated Treasurys, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying a single operation could exceed $4 billion. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials have not shifted to a more dovish inflation view. Daly said there is no evidence yet to justify an early rate hike, while Musalem said moving earlier could help avoid a more aggressive tightening later. The mix has put Treasury and the Fed on opposite sides of the policy trade-off: the Treasury wants lower long-end yields, while the Fed is trying to prevent financial conditions from becoming too easy. The move in yields did not hold. Long-term Treasury yields quickly moved back up, suggesting the market is still focused on the $40 trillion debt load, roughly a 6% fiscal deficit, heavy government funding needs and term premium, not just the buyback program. The Treasury’s action can support short-term liquidity and sentiment, but it cannot by itself change the structural pressure from long-dated debt supply. That backdrop has also shown up in currencies and crypto prices. Citi cut its dollar forecast, saying dovish Fed expectations and Treasury buybacks should weigh on the greenback. Against a softer dollar, gold has extended gains, while BTC has risen about 19.9% since Monday to around $75,400. Over the past 24 hours, short liquidations in BTC reached $1.08 billion. Crypto ETFs took in about $859 million in net inflows, including $606 million into BTC ETFs and $220 million into ETH ETFs, showing that the rally is not only driven by short covering but also by fresh spot demand. The analyst said the key variable for BTC is not simply the path of rate-cut or rate-hike expectations, but whether the current mix of dollar weakness, Treasury yields and liquidity can hold. If long-end yields stay capped by Treasury operations, the dollar keeps weakening and ETF inflows continue, BTC may keep its strength. If debt pressure and inflation push term premium higher again and force the Fed into tighter policy, crypto’s high-beta rally could face a repricing.

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Bitunix Analyst Says Treasury Bond Buybacks, Fed Inflation Stance Drive Nearly 20% BTC Rally
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