Bitcoin may have more downside ahead before the current bear market reaches its low, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen. His base case is that BTC could fall below $60,000 and slide toward $55,000 before a bottom takes shape.
Thielen ties that view to the recent strength of the U.S. dollar. In his reading, a firm dollar has historically acted as a headwind for Bitcoin. The setup has been reinforced by a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets now debating whether the next policy move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. That change in expectations has supported the dollar and weighed on broader assets.
Three indicators point to a late-August to October low
Thielen said three separate indicators are lining up around the same period: global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and Bitcoin’s seasonal behavior. Taken together, they suggest a potential market low could emerge between late August and October.
One model that tracks the rate of change in global liquidity is central to that thesis. Thielen said the model correctly flagged a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, and now identifies late August as the next major inflection point. Seasonal patterns add to that view. Historically, September has often been a weak month for Bitcoin, while October has tended to show stronger performance.
Fed meetings and U.S. political events are in focus
The timing also overlaps with several closely watched macro events, including the Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, the U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury Department’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November. For Thielen, that cluster of events helps define the period when Bitcoin may carve out a cycle low.
His message was direct: patience now, with attention turning to late August.