Miners' Profitability Worsens: Revenue and Cost Squeeze
The Bitcoin mining industry is currently undergoing the most complex round of structural adjustment since the protocol's inception. Although Bitcoin's price remains around $61,000 and the network hashrate is near 1 ZH/s—close to all-time highs—miner profitability continues to deteriorate. Data shows that at a BTC price of approximately $61,000, the theoretical daily revenue for all network miners should be about $78 million, but actual revenue is only about $33 million, representing a 136% shortfall. Meanwhile, hashrate is approaching 1 ZH/s, yet fee income remains persistently low at an average of just $220,000 per day, far below the historical implied figure of roughly $9.7 million. As halvings continue to compress new issuance, the Bitcoin mining industry faces mounting profit pressure.
Rising Costs and Approaching Breakeven
Beyond declining revenue, cost pressures on mining companies are escalating. In 2025, total Bitcoin miner revenue was approximately $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for about $12.3 billion, or 71.5% of total revenue; global mining hardware investment was around $4.5 billion. Combined calculations place the industry's overall breakeven price at roughly $65,000, meaning that at current price levels, relying solely on mining operations can no longer sustain ideal profitability. The industry's challenges extend beyond the block subsidy reduction from halvings; the revenue structure has yet to transition to a fee-driven model.
Outlook Post-2028 Halving
It is estimated that after the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin production costs will rise to approximately $93,289. This will accelerate consolidation toward a smaller number of large, well-capitalized miners with diversified revenue sources. Compared to traditional miners dependent on block rewards, institutional miners with access to low-cost power, AI/HPC hosting businesses, and stronger balance sheets are likely to gain a competitive edge in the next cycle. The focus of mining competition is gradually shifting from hashrate expansion to business model upgrades. The above insights are partly drawn from the BIT on Target research report.
