Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching a combined $8.7 billion in options expiry, a setup that has put traders on alert for sharper price moves. Bitcoin accounts for 114,705 contracts worth about $7.74 billion, while Ethereum is set to see nearly 479,000 contracts expire with a notional value of roughly $975 million. In both markets, these expiring positions represent about 20% of total open interest, leaving a sizable portion of derivatives exposure concentrated in a narrow settlement window.
Both assets remain below max pain levels
Bitcoin is trading at $68,052, well below its $75,000 max pain level. Ethereum is at $2,035, also under its $2,200 max pain point. Max pain refers to the price where the largest number of options contracts would expire worthless, so the current gap has kept attention on whether expiry-related positioning could pull prices closer to those levels.
Call options still lead put open interest in both assets. Bitcoin shows 66,300 call contracts against 48,405 puts, while Ethereum has 268,642 calls versus 210,350 puts. That imbalance suggests traders are still allocating more toward upside exposure than downside hedging, even as price action remains unsettled.
Deribit data points to rising sensitivity into settlement
Deribit said the concentration of outstanding Bitcoin contracts increases price sensitivity as expiry approaches, and that effect could extend into the spot market. Volatility gauges add another layer. Bitcoin’s DVOL index stands at 53, with volatility running 87.7% above historical averages. Ethereum’s DVOL is 70, though its 55.7% volatility profile is less exceptional on a historical basis than Bitcoin’s.
Ethereum’s volatility curve is steeper than Bitcoin’s by 15 to 20 points, showing that investors are assigning more uncertainty to ETH futures pricing. For both assets, the annualized forward curve remains in contango, with near-dated maturities carrying more weight. February options are priced with a notable short-term volatility premium.
Downside hedging demand has cooled, caution remains
Earlier this month, the 25-delta skew for both Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped to -30, a sign of strong demand for protection against abrupt declines. That reading has since recovered to around -8 to -9, indicating that panic has eased, though the market has not turned comfortable. Greeks.live said downward price pressure has subsided, but confidence is still far from restored. The firm also noted a shift toward larger call buying in medium- and long-dated contracts during recent sessions.
Even with some stabilization, analysts still describe the broader tone as cautious. The report points to limited fresh capital entering the market and no clear catalyst in sight, while bearish sentiment remains visible on social platforms and among retail participants. With Bitcoin and Ethereum both below their max pain levels, upcoming expiry could create upward pressure on spot prices. If trading stays subdued, though, volatility in derivatives may soften as contracts roll off.