ACDC Says More Than 150 Polymarket Wallets Appeared to Bet on Military Secrets

Reuters said a new report from the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) found that more than 150 crypto wallets on Polymarket may have used U.S. military secrets to place bets. ACDC reviewed all settled prediction markets through May 5 and screened for Long Shot bets that took in at least $2,500 in an hour and carried win odds below 35%. The researchers identified 556 distinctive wallets, which they labeled “orca” wallets. According to the report, 152 of those wallets focused on military and defense topics. Together, they generated $8 million in profit and posted an average win rate of 97.2%. ACDC said the pattern may reflect luck, but the concentration and profit profile also raise concerns that some wallets could have been exposed to highly sensitive military information. The report also said this type of betting drew copycat activity from well-funded whales and automated trading bots. Copy trading is allowed under current rules, but ACDC said it can speed up the spread of information signals released by the “orca” wallets. As one example, the report pointed to an episode in June last year, when a wallet bet that the U.S. military would take action against Iran hours before the event. That wager reportedly triggered $200,000 in bot bets and $100,000 from whales. Polymarket had not responded to a request for comment. The platform previously said it has strict controls and has referred dozens of suspicious wallets to law enforcement. The U.S. Defense Department said it does not comment on intelligence matters or third-party research. On another front, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is seeking jurisdiction over prediction markets and has filed lawsuits over related violations. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said blockchain transparency makes unusual betting easy for anyone to see. He said it would be naive to think foreign intelligence agencies are not monitoring these markets. The group said post hoc enforcement and identity limits alone are not enough to reduce insider-trading risk in prediction markets. It called for full KYC verification for all traders, a pause on payouts during investigations into suspicious activity, and possible bans on sensitive markets that are easy to use and highly profitable when they rely on nonpublic information.