Hyperliquid’s HYPE token may be drawing strength from one of the most aggressive buyback programs in crypto, but CoinMarketCap Head of Research Alice Liu says that support rests on revenue — and Binance is becoming a threat to that stream.
Speaking to Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, Liu said Bitcoin is unlikely to revisit the lower levels it traded near for much of this year, even after failing to hold above $80,000 following the latest rally.
“I think we might have already touched the bottom,” Liu said, referring to Bitcoin’s drop to around $59,000 in June, roughly 53% below its October all-time high of $126,100.
Bitcoin recently reached $81,600 at the start of September, up about 28% from mid-August. That move pushed the CoinMarketCap Crypto Fear & Greed Index back into Greed after it spent most of the year in Fear.
Hyperliquid still leads on DEXs, but Binance is taking share
Liu said some of the more interesting developments are happening outside Bitcoin, especially in tokenized real-world assets and perpetual futures. On Hyperliquid, she said she watches two things closely: activity and price, because network activity does not always translate into token performance, and the reverse is also true.
She said she had been looking over the past two months at RWA perps tied to tokenized stocks, tokenized ETFs and tokenized indices. Hyperliquid still has market share, she said, but that position may not be secure as centralized exchanges move in.
“Tokenization of the perps, people normally traded on Hyperliquid. But since Binance started to launch the RWA perps, the volume and liquidity quickly moved to Binance,” Liu said.
According to Liu, Binance now controls about 50% of the market share. Even so, Hyperliquid remains the leader within the DEX segment.
“Hyperliquid is still a venue where a lot of the liquidity is getting aggregated, and a lot of the product’s scale is created there,” she said.
The article also cited CoinMarketCap data showing Hyperliquid is up 47.50% over the past 30 days.
Buybacks have helped HYPE, but revenue matters
On the token itself, Liu pointed to a separate driver behind the recent move. HYPE recently reached an all-time high of $86, and she said the most notable part of that story is the scale of the buybacks.
Hyperliquid, she said, is leading the field in token repurchases, using protocol revenue to buy its own tokens on the open market.
“Hype has spent over $400 million USD on token buybacks. So I think some of this price action momentum we’re seeing is supported by that as well,” Liu said.
She added that only a small amount of the token supply has been unlocked so far, and that additional unlocks will continue to come out gradually.
That leaves HYPE dependent on revenue continuing to flow in to support those buybacks. If trading activity shifts elsewhere, the mechanism that has helped support the price could weaken.
Liu is more cautious on AI-crypto tokens
While Liu said she remains bullish on Hyperliquid, she drew a sharper line around the AI-crypto trade, especially the AI tokens that surged in late 2023 despite having little or no utility.
She said those tokens are now facing intense competition from actual AI-related equities, including memory stocks and AI companies.
“For the previous cycle meme-ified AI tokens that do not have any utility or infrastructure, and are purely just backing onto a concept. I think those could potentially go to zero,” Liu said.
At the same time, she said there are “some really solid” AI infrastructure projects. Those projects, in her view, will have utility, though she still expects they may trade at a discount.
Bitcoin may be underestimated, but Liu’s target is below $1 million
Liu said Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are being underestimated as a place to park funds in the current economic environment. Still, she took a more conservative stance than Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, both of whom have predicted Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.
“Bitcoin to $500K by 2030,” Liu said with a laugh.
“It’s not unlikely that we might hit one million, but I’ll give it a more conservative answer,” she added.