The altcoin market is showing signs of a structural recovery, though it has not yet reached what traders typically call an altseason. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said about 70% of altcoins on Binance have moved back above their 200-day moving average, the first time that has happened since October 2025. For much of the previous year, 65% to 85% of altcoins had traded below that line.
Total3 moves back above $800 billion
Darkfost said Total3, the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ether, has climbed back above $800 billion for the first time in more than eight months. He added that the index posted a strong daily close above its May high.
At the same time, Bitcoin has remained trapped in a $75,600 to $82,000 range. The report said capital has naturally rotated toward altcoins under those conditions, with altcoins making up 53% of trading volume on Binance.
Improving structure still falls short of altseason
That improvement in price structure has not been matched by the broader altseason gauge. Blockchaincenter’s Altseason Index fell to 41 on Sept. 20, which is 34 points below the 75 level used to confirm an altseason.
The index measures the share of the top 50 altcoins that have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. It reached about 67 in August, then weakened steadily afterward. In simple terms, fewer than half of altcoins have beaten Bitcoin over the last three months.
Over the same period, Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.34%, up 0.5% in three days. That suggests altcoins may have rebounded against the U.S. dollar, but they have not yet shown broad strength relative to Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC shows an early rotation signal
The report also said the ETH/BTC ratio was around 0.03238. Crypto analyst Ash Crypto wrote on X that the pair is breaking a downtrend line that has extended from 2021 to the present, a trend that has lasted five years.
Still, the breakout has only just appeared, and the ratio remains well below its 2021 high. For now, the move can only be treated as an early sign of altcoin rotation rather than confirmation.
In a Sept. 17 post, Ash Crypto also said that the last time the altcoin market broke a major monthly downtrend, the market entered a parabolic rise within nine months. He said the current setup looks very similar, though the report noted that historical similarity does not guarantee a repeat.
Darkfost urges caution
Despite the improvement in technical indicators, Darkfost said this kind of market structure can reverse quickly and investors should not become overly optimistic.
To confirm that an altseason has truly arrived, altcoins would need to keep outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day measurement window and push the Altseason Index firmly above 75, according to the report.