Anthropic made its IPO filing public on Monday. In offshore crypto markets, traders are already pricing the company at about $1.9 trillion.
According to Unchained, contracts listed on seven offshore crypto exchanges imply a valuation range of roughly $1.87 trillion to $1.92 trillion for Anthropic.
On trade.xyz, a venue on the Hyperliquid blockchain, a contract tied to Anthropic shares opened at $138 on Monday and traded near $115 by Tuesday afternoon. That level puts crypto pricing near the top of the reported $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation range the IPO is said to be targeting. Pricing is reportedly expected in mid-November.
The filing itself did not disclose the number of shares or a price range, leaving both fields blank.
Offshore crypto venues are posting a price before the stock lists
For most investors, the first public price in a hot IPO is the opening trade once the stock starts changing hands. This year, some offshore crypto venues have been posting a market-implied price days or even weeks earlier through perpetual contracts that track a private company’s expected share price until listing.
Seven of those contracts have now run all the way into a listing: Cerebras, Quantinuum, SpaceX, SK Hynix, CXMT, Unitree, and SHEIN. Unchained said that record is the best available test for judging what Anthropic’s roughly $1.9 trillion crypto valuation means as a forecast.
The historical pattern shows that whenever a contract traded above the IPO price, the stock also closed its first day above that contract level. At the same time, the contracts missed the opening trade by about 25% on average, with every venue getting it wrong at once.
The chart in the report compares each 2026 listing’s opening level with its trade.xyz contract on the morning of listing. SK Hynix was excluded from the IPO grouping because it was already trading in Seoul. Unchained cited Hyperliquid, Yahoo Finance, company filings, and its own calculations as sources for that analysis.
These products give synthetic exposure, not actual shares
The contracts let traders bet on where Anthropic’s share price is headed, with gains and losses settled in cash. Buying one does not give the holder actual Anthropic stock.
On trade.xyz, the ANT contract references one Class A share. Until Anthropic lists, the contract price is determined by trading on the venue itself, within limits set by the platform. Once Anthropic begins trading on Nasdaq, the contract converts into a standard perpetual tied to the listed market price.
The contracts are settled in stablecoins and offer 10x leverage before listing. In an August letter to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, written with the advocacy group Hyperliquid Policy Center, trade.xyz described the product this way: 「The position is synthetic price exposure and nothing more.」
Other exchanges quote a total valuation based on an assumed share count. Binance, for example, assumes 1 billion shares, so a quote of 1,883 corresponds to a market capitalization of $1.88 trillion.
None of these contracts are offered to U.S. residents. Anthropic also warns on its support page that anyone selling its shares through tokenized securities or other mechanisms is likely offering an investment that may have no value because of the company’s transfer restrictions.
What the rest of the Unchained report says subscribers can access
Unchained said subscribers can read additional sections covering how closely each of the previous seven perpetual contracts tracked the actual IPO price and opening trade, and where they missed; why venues that were within about 1.3% of each other still got Quantinuum badly wrong after pricing; how much SpaceX and Cerebras left on the table and which traders paid for those misses on listing day; what each Anthropic-linked product actually gives buyers and the only routes to an ANT share for a U.S. investor; and three possible listing-day ranges for Anthropic along with dated signals to watch before pricing.
The article was published by Unchained under the headline “Is Crypto Overpricing Anthropic?”
