As Chinese AI company Zhipu (Zhipu AI) sees its valuation surpass one trillion yuan, a recent article titled "Zhipu is already worth one trillion, how should Anthropic's valuation be calculated?" has drawn significant attention. The piece methodically examines three distinct approaches to valuing Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI model, seeking a reasonable price anchor.
The first method simply applies Zhipu's high price-to-sales (PS) multiple to Anthropic, yielding an inflated estimate in the tens of trillions of dollars. However, due to differences in revenue structure and growth stage between the two companies, this figure is considered severely distorted and unreliable as a valuation guide.
The second method looks at on-chain Pre-IPO contracts, which imply a market capitalization of approximately $1.72 trillion. Yet, liquidity in this market is extremely low, trading depth is shallow, and the price signal carries limited reference value for determining a fair valuation.
The third method uses annualized recurring revenue (ARR) adjusted by gross margin, combined with a multiple-based approach, to produce a more defensible range: $820 billion to $2.36 trillion. This range is considered more grounded in the company's fundamental business metrics and provides a narrower target for investors.
The article concludes that Anthropic's eventual valuation will depend on three critical factors: the sustainability of its revenue growth, the pace at which its inference costs decline, and the quality of its commercial deployment. Together, these elements will shape market expectations of future cash flows and ultimately determine the company's valuation.