Arthur Hayes said on Sept. 11 that a new round of aggressive money printing would likely require more than a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5%. In his view, the bond market’s volatility gauge, the MOVE Index, would also need to break above 130 before Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would be pushed into a true panic response. Hayes framed that threshold as a sign of deeper stress in rates markets rather than a single-yield trigger on its own. He also pointed to a historical comparison, saying the setup would resemble late 2023, when Janet Yellen began draining liquidity from the reverse repo facility, or RRP. The remark updates the conditions Hayes is watching for what he described as a forceful return to the “printing press” button.
Arthur Hayes said on Sept. 11 that forcing Scott Bessent into what he described as a real panic response and a hard push on the money-printing button would require more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5%.
He wrote that the MOVE Index would also need to rise above 130. Hayes said that would resemble conditions seen in late 2023, when Janet Yellen began pulling liquidity out of the reverse repo facility, or RRP.
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