Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says Hyperliquid’s HYPE token could reach $150 by August 2026 if the platform’s 30-day revenue climbs to an annualized $1.4 billion. With HYPE trading near $30 at the time cited in the source, that target points to roughly a fivefold move in about six months.
His case centers on protocol revenue rather than a broad crypto market rally. Hayes describes Hyperliquid as the leading perpetual decentralized exchange and one of the largest revenue-generating protocols outside stablecoins. A key part of the thesis is capital return: about 97% of platform revenue is used to buy back HYPE, sending value back to token holders through a direct and measurable mechanism.
Revenue recovery and a higher earnings multiple drive the model
Hayes assumes Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue rises from $843 million in March to $1.4 billion in August. He notes that the protocol had already reached that revenue level in August last year, so the target is presented as a recovery rather than an entirely new milestone. He also expects the market to reprice HYPE’s earnings multiple from 12x to 25.2x, while still keeping the token competitive against traditional exchange-token valuations.
In his framework, Hyperliquid does not need total crypto market activity to expand for that revenue target to come back into view. He argues that taking an additional 3.97 percentage points of perpetual futures market share from centralized exchanges would be enough to restore the $1.4 billion annualized run rate. Perpetual futures remain one of the biggest segments in crypto derivatives, so even a modest shift in share can produce large fee revenue.
HIP-3 markets are already adding to the top line
Hayes also points to Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework as a second growth engine. The system allows permissionless listing of new perpetual markets for users who stake 500,000 HYPE. Early listings include contracts tied to gold, silver, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, extending the exchange beyond crypto-native instruments.
HIP-3 has been live for only four months, yet it already accounts for close to 10% of total platform revenue, according to the source material. Hayes projects HIP-3 revenue will grow by 160% over the next six months, helping lift total protocol revenue by 66%. He also mentions HIP-4, which may support permissionless prediction markets, as a possible source of extra upside. That contribution is not included in his base case.
To show the setup has precedent, Hayes references GMX. The decentralized exchange reached $90 in April 2023 after leading perp DEX volume and distributing fees to token holders. Applied to Hyperliquid, his argument is straightforward: if revenue returns, buybacks stay active, and perpetual futures share moves higher, the market may revalue HYPE off the protocol’s cash-generating capacity.