The U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released tonight, with the market expecting an addition of 56,000 jobs, following a surprise decline of 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, while annual wage growth may slow to 3%. Morgan Stanley's chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants could reduce payrolls by about 15,000, though gains in local government education, leisure, and hospitality sectors may provide support. Most economists believe that unless the data shows a major surprise, the report is unlikely to directly determine the Fed's rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting, with attention turning to next week's CPI. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on Thursday that he would favor holding rates steady this month if upcoming data confirms cooling inflation. The market now sees a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.
BlockBeats, September 4 — At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, the U.S. will release the August nonfarm payrolls report. The market expects a gain of 56,000 jobs, following an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July. Economists' forecasts range from a decrease of 25,000 to an increase of 121,000, reflecting significant divergence in views on the labor market.
Unemployment and Wage Growth
The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, though some economists project a rise to 4.2%. Annual wage growth is likely to slow to 3% from 3.2%.
Immigration Policy and Employment Support
Morgan Stanley chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants could reduce nonfarm payrolls by about 15,000. However, rebounds in local government education, leisure, and hospitality employment may provide some offset.
Limited Impact on Fed Decision
Most economists believe that unless the nonfarm data shows a major surprise, the report is unlikely to directly determine the Fed's rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting. The market's focus will shift to next week's CPI. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that if upcoming data confirms cooling inflation, he would favor holding rates steady this month. Currently, the market pricing implies a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.
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