Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: FIGR) remains one of Bernstein’s highest-conviction ideas despite a steep selloff that has left the stock roughly 60% below its 52-week high. The research firm reiterated its Outperform rating and set a $67 price target, implying more than 100% upside from the stock’s recent trading range of roughly $31 to $32.
While Bernstein trimmed its target from $72 previously, the firm did not back away from its bullish thesis. Instead, it argued that the correction in crypto-linked equities, including FIGR, has been driven more by geopolitical stress and weak market sentiment than by any meaningful deterioration in company fundamentals. In that framing, the current share price represents not a warning sign, but a potential entry point for investors willing to look through short-term volatility.
A blockchain-based lender with a growing platform business
Figure Technology Solutions, formerly known as Figure Technologies, was founded in 2018 by Mike Cagney, a co-founder of SoFi, and June Ou. Based in Reno, Nevada, the company has built its business around the Provenance blockchain, which it uses to originate loans, tokenize credit assets, and operate Figure Connect, a marketplace designed to connect loan originators with institutional capital.
The company went public on Nasdaq in September 2025, and since then analysts have increasingly focused on its role in the intersection of fintech, blockchain infrastructure, and tokenized credit. Bernstein initiated coverage in October 2025 with a $54 price target, then raised that target to $72 in January 2026, naming FIGR its top pick for the year. The latest $67 target still reflects substantial conviction, even after the adjustment.
Loan originations are accelerating
One of the central supports for Bernstein’s positive view is the company’s recent operating momentum. According to the firm, Figure’s monthly loan volume exceeded $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching approximately $1.2 billion. That represented a 33% month-over-month increase, a notable acceleration that suggests broadening demand and stronger execution across the platform.
For the full first quarter of 2026, Figure reported $2.9 billion in originations, more than double the level from the same period a year earlier. Bernstein said that pace implies an annualized run rate of about $12 billion, underscoring how quickly the business has scaled since listing.
Looking ahead, Bernstein projects full-year 2026 loan volume of $12.8 billion, which would mark a 53% year-over-year increase. The firm expects home equity lines of credit to remain the dominant product category, contributing roughly $11.1 billion of the total. At the same time, newer verticals such as auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans are expected to add around $1.7 billion, suggesting the company is beginning to diversify beyond its core lending base.
Figure Connect is central to the long-term thesis
Bernstein’s optimism is not based only on origination growth. A major pillar of the investment case is Figure Connect, the company’s tokenized marketplace. Bernstein expects the platform to handle 56% of total loan volume in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. For context, the platform processed about 54% of total volume in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that marketplace penetration has already been moving higher.
That trend matters because Figure Connect sits at the heart of the firm’s tokenized credit strategy. Rather than acting solely as a lender, Figure is increasingly building a marketplace and infrastructure layer that can route assets between loan originators and institutional buyers. If that share of platform-driven volume keeps climbing, investors may begin to value the company not just as a balance-sheet lender but as a higher-multiple financial technology and market infrastructure operator.
Bernstein also highlighted Figure’s strong position in tokenized private credit. The company currently holds about 75% market share in a market estimated at roughly $17 billion. In practical terms, that gives Figure a commanding lead in one of the most closely watched segments of blockchain-based finance. If tokenized private credit continues to expand, maintaining that share could become a meaningful strategic advantage.
Revenue growth, profitability, and valuation
Recent financial performance has also supported the bullish case. Bernstein said revenue grew 48% over the trailing 12 months as of its March note. The firm projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027, and applies a 25x EV/2027 EBITDA multiple to derive its $67 price target.
Figure’s reported Q4 2025 results, released in February, showed profit growth of 156% and revenue of nearly $160 million. Those figures reinforced the argument that the company’s stock decline has been much sharper than any visible weakening in underlying operations.
Wall Street is not fully aligned
Even so, FIGR is far from a consensus story. Other analysts have taken a more cautious approach. Mizuho cut its price target from $55 to $45 on March 26 while maintaining an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform in February with a $42 target. Needham lowered its target from $71 to $55 but kept a buy rating. In contrast, Piper Sandler raised its target to $75 in January and assigned an overweight rating.
According to MarketBeat data cited in the report, among 11 analysts covering the stock, two rate it a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one rates it a hold, and three assign sell ratings. The average target price stands at $53.75, below Bernstein’s current $67 view. That gap illustrates how divided the market remains on whether Figure should be valued as a high-growth category leader or treated more cautiously given its exposure to volatile crypto and tokenization narratives.
Share performance and investor positioning
In early April 2026, FIGR shares traded in a range of about $31 to $34. The stock was down roughly 24% year to date and approximately 60% from its 52-week high. Despite that drawdown, it had gained 6.9% over the past month, though it slipped 5% over the last five trading sessions mentioned in the report.
Institutional ownership trends appear modest but constructive. MarketBeat statistics showed several firms either adding to or initiating positions in Q4 2025. Wells Fargo increased its stake by 3.5% to 18,429 shares, while Global Retirement Partners, STRS Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors each opened new positions during the same quarter.
The core debate around FIGR
The investment debate around Figure now comes down to a familiar question in growth equities: is the recent selloff a mispricing caused by macro pressure and poor sentiment, or is the market reassessing the durability of blockchain-based lending and tokenized credit valuations?
Bernstein is firmly in the first camp. Its view is that the stock’s decline has outpaced any change in the business itself, and that Figure’s combination of rising originations, increasing marketplace penetration, and dominant share in tokenized private credit leaves room for a substantial rerating if execution continues. Skeptics, by contrast, point to target cuts and more conservative ratings from other firms as evidence that investors should remain selective.
For now, the facts are clear: Figure is growing originations rapidly, expanding the importance of Figure Connect within its business mix, and maintaining a leading position in tokenized private credit. Whether that is enough to justify a return toward Bernstein’s $67 target will depend on how quickly the market regains confidence in both the company’s model and the broader digital asset-linked equity space.