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2026-08-12 09:32:27

Figure’s valuation gap centers on a business Wall Street still treats like a lender

A joint memo from Artemis Analytics and North Island Ventures argues that Figure is being valued as a conventional balance-sheet lender even as its business shifts toward a lighter marketplace model. The report points to a sharp rise in partner-originated flow, rapid expansion at Figure Connect, and a larger share of revenue coming from platform-style fees rather than capital-intensive lending activity. In the first quarter of 2026, partners accounted for 78% of platform flow, Connect volume climbed to $1.6 billion from $8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, and ecosystem and technology fees reached 28% of revenue, up from 5%. The authors say that shift matters because Connect lets Figure collect underwriting and distribution fees without taking on the same customer acquisition burden, warehouse funding needs, or credit exposure tied to its legacy model. They also point to two possible supply drivers: a recovery in second-lien home equity lending and Figure’s pending acquisition of Kiavi, which they say could double the company’s first-lien business. The memo argues that current consensus expectations and valuation multiples still do not fully capture that transition, while also laying out risks including weaker housing activity, underwriting becoming more commoditized through AI, pricing deterioration, and governance concerns tied to the company’s dual-class structure.

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Figure’s valuation gap centers on a business Wall Street still treats like a lender