Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: FIGR) remains one of the more closely watched names at the intersection of fintech, blockchain infrastructure, and tokenized credit. Even after a sharp selloff that has left the stock roughly 60% below its 52-week high, Bernstein has reaffirmed its bullish stance, maintaining an Outperform rating and a $67 price target. With FIGR recently trading around $31 to $32, that target implies more than 100% upside from current levels.
Bernstein had previously carried a $72 target and has now trimmed that figure modestly, but the firm did not change its constructive view on the business. The central argument is that the recent weakness in crypto-linked and blockchain-exposed equities has been driven more by geopolitical uncertainty and weak market sentiment than by any meaningful deterioration in Figure’s operating performance. In that context, the firm sees the correction as a potential entry point rather than a warning sign.
A Blockchain-Based Credit Platform Under the Spotlight
Figure Technology Solutions, formerly known as Figure Technologies, was founded in 2018 by Mike Cagney, a co-founder of SoFi, together with June Ou. Based in Reno, Nevada, the company uses its proprietary Provenance blockchain to support loan origination, asset tokenization, and marketplace activity through Figure Connect, a platform that links loan originators with institutional capital.
The company went public on Nasdaq in September 2025, and since then it has attracted substantial attention from equity analysts trying to determine how public investors should value a company built around tokenized credit infrastructure. Bernstein initiated coverage in October 2025 with a $54 target, raised it to $72 in January 2026, and at that time named FIGR its top pick for the year. The latest note keeps the bullish framework intact while acknowledging a tougher market backdrop.
Loan Growth Continues to Accelerate
A major pillar of Bernstein’s thesis is the company’s continued origination growth. According to the firm, Figure’s monthly loan volume exceeded $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching $1.2 billion. That represented a 33% month-over-month increase. For the first quarter of 2026, total originations came in at $2.9 billion, more than double the level recorded in the same period a year earlier.
That pace implies an annualized run rate of around $12 billion, reinforcing the view that the company’s lending engine is expanding meaningfully rather than merely benefiting from one-off activity. Bernstein projects full-year 2026 loan volume of $12.8 billion, which would represent 53% year-over-year growth. Most of that activity is expected to come from home equity lines of credit, which the firm estimates will contribute about $11.1 billion of the total. Newer product categories such as auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans are projected to add roughly $1.7 billion.
These figures matter because they suggest Figure is not only scaling but also broadening its addressable product mix. For investors, the key issue is whether this growth can continue while maintaining profitability and capital efficiency.
Figure Connect and the Tokenized Credit Opportunity
Another important element in the valuation debate is Figure Connect, the company’s tokenized marketplace. Bernstein expects the platform to process 56% of total loan volumes in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, the platform already handled about 54% of total volumes, indicating that marketplace penetration has been rising steadily.
For bullish analysts, Figure Connect is more than an internal efficiency tool. It is seen as the core infrastructure layer that could allow Figure to scale loan distribution and tokenized credit activity in a more capital-light way over time. Bernstein also noted that Figure currently holds about 75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market, giving it a strong early-mover position in a niche that could become strategically important if institutional adoption broadens.
The tokenized credit theme remains one of the most closely followed narratives in digital asset finance. While stablecoins and tokenized Treasuries often dominate headlines, private credit tokenization has increasingly drawn attention as firms seek to bring traditionally illiquid lending products onto blockchain-based rails. Figure’s market share and operating footprint make it a notable public-market proxy for that trend.
Revenue, Profitability, and Valuation Framework
Bernstein’s confidence is also rooted in the company’s financial trajectory. Revenue increased 48% over the trailing twelve months as of the March research note. The firm projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027. Using a valuation multiple of 25x EV/2027 EBITDA, Bernstein arrived at its $67 target price.
Recent reported results support the idea that operating leverage is improving. Figure’s Q4 2025 results, released in February, showed profit growth of 156% and revenue close to $160 million. Those numbers helped reinforce the case that the company’s growth is not simply top-line expansion but may also be translating into stronger earnings power.
Even so, the stock has remained volatile. Over the past month, FIGR shares were up 6.9%, but the stock fell about 5% over the last five trading sessions cited in the report. In early April 2026, the shares traded in a range of roughly $31 to $34, down around 24% year to date.
Analyst Opinions Are Far From Uniform
Although Bernstein is among the more optimistic voices on the name, Wall Street is not unanimous. Mizuho cut its target from $55 to $45 on March 26 while keeping an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded FIGR to underperform in February and set a $42 target. Needham reduced its target from $71 to $55 but maintained a buy rating. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler raised its target to $75 in January and kept an overweight rating.
According to MarketBeat data referenced in the coverage, among 11 analysts tracking FIGR, two rate it a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one has a hold, and three recommend selling. The average price target stands at $53.75, which is meaningfully below Bernstein’s $67 objective. That spread highlights how uncertain the market still is when it comes to pricing a fast-growing company tied to both fintech execution and blockchain-based financial infrastructure.
Institutional Positioning and Market Context
The report also noted signs of modest institutional interest. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Wells Fargo increased its stake by 3.5% to 18,429 shares. Other firms including Global Retirement Partners, Strs Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors established new positions during the same quarter. These are not transformative moves on their own, but they suggest that some institutional investors continue to build exposure despite the stock’s volatility.
More broadly, FIGR sits in a difficult but potentially rewarding part of the market. It is often grouped with crypto-linked equities, which means its stock can be hit by risk-off moves even when the company’s own operating metrics remain strong. For investors, that creates a tension: sentiment and macro conditions can weigh heavily on the share price in the near term, while business fundamentals may continue to improve underneath the surface.
What Investors Will Watch Next
Going forward, the market is likely to focus on a handful of measurable indicators. First is whether Figure can sustain its rapid origination growth and remain on track toward Bernstein’s $12.8 billion full-year forecast. Second is whether Figure Connect continues to capture a larger share of total company volume, reinforcing the thesis that the platform is central to long-term scale and margin expansion. Third is whether the company can preserve its leading position in tokenized private credit as competitors move more aggressively into the segment.
For now, Bernstein’s call is straightforward: the stock’s decline appears disproportionately severe relative to the company’s current business momentum. Critics, however, are likely to argue that execution risk, valuation uncertainty, and market volatility still justify caution. As a result, FIGR remains a stock where conviction depends heavily on one’s view of tokenized credit as both a near-term business and a longer-term structural theme.
In short, FIGR’s story is no longer just about a falling stock recovering from a drawdown. It is increasingly about whether public equity investors are ready to assign premium value to a company trying to build a blockchain-native credit platform at scale. Bernstein says yes. The market, at least for now, remains divided.