Bernstein has reiterated its bullish stance on Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq: FIGR), arguing that the stock’s sharp decline has created an attractive entry point for investors. The firm maintained an Outperform rating and set a $67 price target, implying more than 100% upside from the stock’s recent trading range of roughly $31 to $32. The call comes even as FIGR remains about 60% below its 52-week high, underscoring a widening debate over whether the selloff reflects temporary sentiment pressure or deeper concerns about valuation and execution.
A sharp correction, but a bullish thesis remains intact
Bernstein had previously reduced its target from $72 to $67, but it did not back away from its constructive view. According to the firm, the broader pullback in crypto-linked and blockchain-adjacent equities has been driven more by geopolitical uncertainty and weaker market sentiment than by any meaningful deterioration in company fundamentals. In that framework, FIGR’s decline is seen not as a warning sign but as a dislocation between price and operating performance.
Figure Technology Solutions has traded in the $31 to $34 range in early April 2026. The stock is down about 24% year to date and roughly 60% from its peak over the last 52 weeks. While that scale of retracement would typically raise caution, Bernstein’s analysis suggests investors may be overlooking the pace at which the company’s lending and tokenization platform continues to expand.
How Figure built its blockchain-based lending model
Founded in 2018 by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney and June Ou, the Reno-based company operates at the intersection of private credit and blockchain infrastructure. Figure uses its proprietary Provenance blockchain to originate loans, tokenize credit assets, and run Figure Connect, a marketplace designed to connect loan originators with institutional capital. The business model is built around improving loan funding efficiency and digitizing credit pipelines, particularly in markets where private capital has been searching for faster and more transparent structures.
The company went public on the Nasdaq in September 2025. Since then, analysts have paid increasing attention to the stock, especially as Figure has become one of the more visible publicly traded names linked to tokenized real-world assets and blockchain-enabled lending rails.
Loan volumes are accelerating
One of the strongest pillars of Bernstein’s thesis is the company’s rapid growth in originations. The firm noted that Figure’s monthly loan volume exceeded $1 billion for the first time in March 2026, reaching approximately $1.2 billion. That represented a 33% month-over-month increase, a notable signal of momentum heading into the second quarter.
For the first quarter of 2026, Figure reported originations of $2.9 billion, more than double the level recorded in the same period a year earlier. On an annualized basis, that places the company on a run rate of roughly $12 billion. Bernstein expects full-year 2026 volume to reach $12.8 billion, implying 53% year-over-year growth. Those figures are central to the investment case, as they suggest the company is still expanding quickly despite broader volatility in markets tied to crypto and digital asset infrastructure.
Figure Connect is becoming increasingly important
Beyond headline origination growth, analysts are closely watching the increasing role of Figure Connect. Bernstein expects the tokenized marketplace to handle 56% of the company’s total loan volume in 2026, up from 46% in 2025. The transition already appears to be underway: in the fourth quarter of 2025, the platform processed around 54% of total volume.
This matters because Figure Connect is more than a distribution channel. It is a key piece of the company’s long-term strategy to make tokenized credit origination and placement more scalable. If a greater share of volume flows through the platform, investors may increasingly view Figure not only as a lender or loan originator, but as a financial infrastructure provider with marketplace economics.
Bernstein also highlighted Figure’s estimated 75% market share in the $17 billion tokenized private credit market. That dominant position gives the company a potentially meaningful advantage in a niche that remains early but is attracting rising interest from institutional market participants. The tokenization of private credit has been discussed for years as a way to streamline issuance, servicing, and secondary distribution, and Figure appears to be one of the few listed companies with operating scale in the segment.
Business mix and revenue trajectory
In Bernstein’s 2026 forecast, home equity lines of credit are expected to remain the primary driver, contributing approximately $11.1 billion of total annual loan volume. Newer categories, including auto loans, small business loans, and residential transition loans, are projected to account for another $1.7 billion. That suggests the company’s growth is still anchored in its core products, but diversification is beginning to emerge.
Financially, the company has also posted notable progress. Bernstein said revenue grew 48% over the trailing 12 months as of its March note. The firm projects a 48% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 through 2027. Using a 25x EV/2027 EBITDA multiple, Bernstein arrived at its $67 valuation target. While the implied multiple may appear aggressive to some investors, the firm clearly believes Figure’s growth profile and strategic positioning justify a premium relative to more traditional financial stocks.
Figure’s Q4 2025 results, reported in February, offered support for that view. The company posted 156% profit growth and revenue near $160 million, reinforcing the argument that business momentum has remained healthy even as the stock price weakened.
Not all analysts agree
Even so, Wall Street is far from unanimous. Mizuho cut its target from $55 to $45 on March 26 while maintaining an outperform rating. Bank of America downgraded the stock to underperform in February with a $42 target. Needham reduced its target from $71 to $55 but kept a buy rating, while Piper Sandler lifted its target to $75 in January and maintained an overweight stance.
According to data cited from MarketBeat, among 11 analysts covering the company, two rate it a strong buy, five rate it a buy, one has a hold rating, and three rate it a sell. The average price target stands at $53.75, below Bernstein’s current $67 target. That gap captures the market’s split view: some analysts see a category leader in tokenized private credit, while others remain concerned that valuation and sector volatility could limit near-term upside.
Institutional positioning and the broader takeaway
Institutional ownership data cited in the report showed modest accumulation. Wells Fargo increased its stake by 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 18,429 shares. Other firms, including Global Retirement Partners, Strs Ohio, MetLife Investment Management, and Flagship Harbor Advisors, also initiated new positions during the same quarter. The scale of these holdings is not large enough on its own to define a trend, but it does indicate continued institutional interest despite the stock’s volatility.
Ultimately, the FIGR debate comes down to whether the market is willing to assign premium value to a company combining lending growth with blockchain-native market infrastructure. Bernstein’s answer is clearly yes. Its thesis rests on a combination of strong origination momentum, expanding marketplace penetration, leadership in tokenized private credit, and a growth profile that remains unusually robust for a newly public financial technology company.
For now, FIGR stands as one of the most closely watched public equities tied to the tokenization of real-world credit assets. Whether Bernstein’s more than 100% upside call proves correct will likely depend on two things: the company’s ability to keep converting operating growth into profitability, and the market’s willingness to reward blockchain-based financial infrastructure with higher valuation multiples again.