BIT Research said the crypto market is now moving through an adjustment phase driven by policy expectations and liquidity conditions. According to the report, easing geopolitical tensions and the stronger-than-expected SpaceX IPO performance once helped Bitcoin rebound from technically oversold levels. That rebound, however, lost part of its support after newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpected hawkish signal, weakening the easing expectations that the market had been pricing in.
The report added that stablecoin liquidity continues to contract, while fresh capital inflows remain insufficient. As a result, the market has returned to a typically quiet summer trading environment. From the current pricing perspective, BIT Research said the market still lacks a macro catalyst strong enough to drive a new upward leg. Daily trading volume has fallen sharply from the 2025 peak, stablecoin growth has continued to slow, and the support created by Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, through STRC preferred stock financing and Bitcoin purchases is also fading.
Hawkish Fed Signals Remove a Clear Policy Anchor
Before the latest policy shift, the market had broadly expected Kevin Warsh to send a dovish signal. Instead, the FOMC unexpectedly leaned hawkish. Several committee members indicated that if inflation pressure persists, another rate hike this year would remain on the table. Warsh also clearly expressed his determination to rebuild policy credibility. BIT Research said this shift has left the market without a clear policy anchor, lifting the risk premium. Based on historical experience cited in the report, this type of uncertainty is generally unfavorable for a sustained Bitcoin rebound.
The firm’s trend model shows that as long as Bitcoin remains below $73,700, the overall trend stays bearish, while key resistance levels will gradually move lower over time. On the technical side, $62,446 remains an important support level. If Bitcoin falls below that area, the downside trend would face pressure to accelerate. At the same time, BIT Research compared the current structure with the 2022 bottoming process, noting that the market can also go through an extended period of range-bound consolidation before gradually forming a cyclical low.
Stablecoin Growth Slows as Volume Falls to About One Quarter of the Peak
Beyond macro factors, BIT Research identified insufficient liquidity as the core constraint facing the current market. Daily trading volume has at times shrunk to about $50 billion, compared with roughly $200 billion in average daily volume during the July-to-October 2025 rally. That means current activity is only about 25% of the previous peak. Stablecoin growth has also slowed markedly. The 12-month rolling growth rates of USDT and USDC reached 52% and 122%, respectively, in late 2025, but both year-on-year growth rates have now fallen back to around 20%. Their six-month growth rates are closer to zero, reflecting a clear weakening in new liquidity.
ETF and Strategy-Driven Inflows Have Also Weakened
Capital inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy have also weakened compared with earlier phases. Previously, Strategy’s aggressive issuance of STRC preferred stock helped push Bitcoin up by about $15,000, a gain of nearly 20%. BIT Research said that support is now gradually fading. The market’s 30-day rolling fund flow remains in net outflow territory, and without a new powerful catalyst, a sustained upward trend remains difficult to form.
The report concluded that inflation at 4.2% remains far above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. Under the combined pressure of a hawkish policy stance, weaker summer seasonality and insufficient liquidity, Bitcoin still lacks sufficient support to hold above $60,000 in the short term. As the market gradually completes its clearing process, the current adjustment still has a path to form a cyclical low this summer. BIT Research added that the price does not need to begin a new rally immediately, but the process can serve as preparation for the next bull-market cycle. Some of the above views come from BIT on Target, with the full report available through direct contact with the provider.
