Bitcoin edged higher with other risk assets overnight and briefly touched about $64,500, but it remains capped by the 15-day moving average near $64,200. The market is waiting for Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data and for progress on the Clarity Act.
On-chain data in the report showed about 155,000 BTC changed hands in the $62,000 to $65,000 range. Glassnode said more than 3% of supply, or about 515,000 BTC, last moved near $63,000, while another roughly 362,000 BTC was concentrated around $61,000. Spot price is now almost aligned with the 200-week moving average at about $63,700, a level the report described as an area of stronger support.
Volatility is low, but traders are watching $60,000 closely
In options, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has fallen to 36%, the lowest since the end of May. That leaves the market in a low-volatility regime, with the report warning that any return in volatility could bring a directional move.
Traders remain cautious on the next leg. The report said $60,000 is widely seen as the key support level, while $64,700 and $71,000 are the main resistance zones overhead. On prediction market Kalshi, traders have been betting on Bitcoin falling below $60,000 this month, and participation has also increased in contracts tied to moves down to $57,500 and $55,000.
Traders Killa and Daan Crypto warned that an extreme compression in price often leads to a breakout. The report added that August has historically been a weak month, with a median return of -7.49%, making shakeouts easier in thinner liquidity.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin has a 55% probability of ranging between $58,000 and $67,000 in August, compared with a 30% bearish probability and a 15% bullish probability.
Payrolls, Hormuz developments, and the Clarity Act are in focus
The report said attention is shifting to Friday’s payrolls release and developments around a Hormuz Strait agreement. If the agreement is completed smoothly, it could lift risk appetite and help Bitcoin push higher. If payrolls come in too hot, or if the agreement stalls, the $64,000 area may remain harder to clear and the probability of a move down toward $62,000 or even $60,000 would rise.
On regulation, the market is also tracking progress on the Clarity Act. BIT said a repricing of expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year could benefit both gold and Bitcoin.
Key items on the day’s watchlist
- Binance will add 10 bStocks trading pairs including ALABB, ASMLB, and ASTSB on Aug. 5.
- Uniswap may launch Robinhood Chain token issuance platform pools.trade early on Aug. 6.
- Succinct (PROVE) will unlock about 208 million tokens on Aug. 5, worth about $34.29 million.
- Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 172 million tokens on Aug. 5, worth about $13.39 million.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock about 433,000 tokens on Aug. 6, worth about $22.67 million.
- Upbit’s 24-hour trading volume leaders were GRVT, HOME, BTC, XRP, and QUID.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $211 million in inflows.
- Spot Ether ETFs saw $53.7474 million in inflows.
- Among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, PUMP rose 12%, ZEC 6.2%, HYPE 4.9%, LIT 4.8%, and STABLE 4.1%.
U.S. stock futures stayed positive while tech names split in late trading
U.S. equity index futures extended their rebound, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.13%, Dow futures up 0.22%, and S&P 500 futures up 0.34%. According to BIT overnight trading data, major tech names were mixed, with Micron Technology, SanDisk, SK hynix, storage ETF DRAM, Marvell Technology, Intel, Tesla, Microsoft, Google, and Meta all moving within a -2% to 2% range.
AMD fell nearly 8% in overnight trading. Its Q2 revenue came in at $11.54 billion, up 50% year over year, ahead of expectations, but the market was not fully convinced by its Q3 revenue guidance. SpaceX also dropped nearly 8%. Its first earnings report showed Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and sharply higher EBITDA, but AI-related capital expenditure reached $15.8 billion and is expected to remain elevated in coming quarters.
NVIDIA rose more than 2% in late trading. The report said CEO Jensen Huang posted three tweets promoting the company’s autonomous driving model. It also said SpaceX would “exclusively” adopt NVIDIA’s AI computing architecture and plans to deploy NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale systems on the ground and in space. Arista surged more than 13% after beating expectations on both earnings and guidance. Q2 revenue came in slightly above $3 billion, up 37.7% year over year, and the company raised its 2026 outlook for a third time, now projecting full-year revenue of $12.6 billion, or about 40% growth. Rocket Lab rose nearly 3% after winning a $397 million U.S. military contract.
Palantir jumped, while Michael Burry kept his bearish stance
Expectations for a temporary Hormuz agreement strengthened. The report said Donald Trump indicated there could be clarity within 48 hours, with a possible 60-day arrangement announced on Wednesday. Oil prices fell more than 5%, inflation concerns eased, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pulled back to around 4.62%.
In the prior session, the Dow gained 1.71% and closed above 54,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 rose 1.79% to another record, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.59%. Palantir surged nearly 30%, Caterpillar rose more than 5% to a record high, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained more than 6%, with memory and optical communication names advancing broadly.
Goldman Sachs traders said clean positioning, discounted valuations, and better earnings visibility were lining up, but market activity scored only 4 out of 10. They also noted that 0DTE options were leaning toward higher volatility, leaving market structure fragile.
Michael Burry remained bearish. He said the market may be nearing a major top and even faces the risk of a sharp drop similar to 1987. He also said there have not been many historical cases in which the S&P 500 rose 5% in four trading days and then made new highs, adding that March 2000 and April 1999 were both close to dangerous tech-bubble territory. He continues to hold short positions in a semiconductor ETF, Micron, NVIDIA, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials, and he rolled NVIDIA put options to June 2027.
Crypto-linked stocks mostly rose, but Cipher and Hut 8 lagged
Crypto-related equities were mostly stronger as Bitcoin recovered. According to BIT data, miner Cipher plunged 15.65%. The report said the company is in a difficult transition from Bitcoin mining to AI and high-performance computing data centers. Its Q2 revenue and net profit both missed expectations by a wide margin, net loss widened to $267.5 million, and Bitcoin mining revenue fell to $24.8 million, down 43% year over year.
Hut 8 dropped 9.74%, with both Q2 revenue and net profit coming in below expectations. Canaan rose 12.46% after saying it plans to monetize part of its digital asset holdings for share repurchases.
Coinbase, Strategy, Circle, and Robinhood each gained 2% to 5%. Strategy-related preferred stock STRC moved back above $90 and has rebounded nearly 24% from its June low. Coinbase has traded at a discount for 79 straight days since May 19, which the report said points to weak U.S. spot demand.
Japan and South Korea tech stocks rebounded, and Goldman raised its China AI model forecast
Fresh highs in U.S. equities and optimistic expectations around Hormuz lifted risk appetite across Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.66% and reclaimed 66,000, with SoftBank up 13.96% and Kioxia up 4.24%. South Korea’s KOSPI added 3.76%, while the junior market index rose 2.41%.
South Korean memory stocks led the move. SK hynix rose 5.77% and was up nearly 8% intraday, while Samsung Electronics closed 2.5% higher. The market is betting on shareholder return plans after the blackout period and continued HBM demand. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek jumped 14.43% and 14.48% on market rumors that they would be exclusive suppliers of camera modules for Tesla’s Cybercab. Goldman reiterated buy ratings on Samsung and SK hynix, saying valuations had become excessively pessimistic, HBM prices could nearly double by 2027, and long-term contract terms were tilting toward suppliers.
Mainland Chinese equities were hit early by rumors of a U.S. optical module restriction, but all three major indexes finished higher. MLCC, memory chip, and PCB shares led gains, and semiconductor equipment ETFs rose sharply as money rotated back into hard-tech stocks.
Hong Kong optical communication names stayed under pressure. Zhongji Innolight’s H shares fell about 7% early, while Cambridge Industries dropped about 5%. Responding to rumors that the U.S. might restrict new Chinese optical modules from entering its data centers, Zhongji Innolight said it had verified that the Federal Communications Commission had not issued such a restriction and declined to comment on any later impact.
Goldman was also constructive on China’s large AI models. The bank said Chinese models are reshaping the competitive field with aggressive cost performance and multimodal capabilities, and that the top five spots in its latest weekly AI large-model usage ranking were all held by Chinese companies. On that basis, Goldman raised its forecast for China AI large-model annual recurring revenue in 2026 to $13 billion from $10 billion, and said it favored MiniMax, Zhipu AI, GDS, VNET, Alibaba, and Kingsoft Cloud.
What markets are watching next
On Aug. 5, markets are tracking earnings from Circle, Uber, Eli Lilly, and BeiGene. The report said Circle’s results will directly affect sentiment in stablecoins and crypto stocks, with investors focused on USDC growth, interest income, and regulatory guidance. Uber is seen as a read on travel consumption and the platform economy, while Eli Lilly remains an important signal for obesity drugs and growth healthcare names.
On Aug. 6, SpaceX will see as many as 911.5 million restricted shares become eligible for sale. Based on the latest share price, the report said the potential value is close to $100 billion, making it the biggest liquidity stress test of the week. Limited selling pressure after the unlock could boost confidence in demand for highly valued tech assets. Concentrated selling, on the other hand, could weigh on the Nasdaq and sentiment around Elon Musk-linked assets.
Also at 05:00 that day, SanDisk and Western Digital will report after the close. The market will be watching enterprise SSD demand, NAND pricing, AI data-center storage demand, inventory cycles, and second-half guidance, all of which could shape sentiment in storage names.