Early Miner Wallet Movement: 2,000 BTC Sent to Coinbase
Wallets from the Satoshi era (2010) began moving. 40 addresses, each holding 50 BTC, transferred their entire balances to Coinbase. CryptoQuant's head noted that such miners always act at key inflection points — meaning early holders believe now is a selling opportunity. The transfer of 2,000 BTC is likely intended for selling, adding selling pressure to the market.
Price Pullback: From $78K to $74K, Thin Buying Interest
Over the weekend, Bitcoin fell from $78,000 back to around $74,000, with virtually no demand or buying support. Whether it can hold this level will heavily depend on tonight's US stock market opening. Last week's rally was primarily driven by BlackRock's eight consecutive days of buying, with weekly inflows hitting a three-month record.
The current decline appears relatively short-lived, and the handover between old and new capital will continue. If US institutional funds can absorb the selling, the $74,000 level could hold; if not, Bitcoin may revisit $70,000.
Macro Factors: US-Iran Talks Uncertainty Weighs on Risk Assets
US-Iran negotiations have returned to an uncertain phase, causing oil prices to rebound significantly. Bitcoin, as a risk asset, naturally dipped along with the uncertainty. The period around the April 22 ceasefire deadline carries strong uncertainty. Ultimately, direction depends on US-Iran developments (especially Trump's comments): ceasefire equals rally, conflict equals decline.
Short-Term Outlook: Await US Stock Open and BlackRock Flows
Tonight's opening requires close attention to BlackRock's inflow data, which will set the tone for the week's strength. Inflows are likely to continue, but whether they can fully offset the early miner selling remains questionable. Until April 22, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate around $74,000 with short-term volatility.