Bitcoin’s upward momentum is fading, and markets are weighing rising U.S. rate-hike expectations alongside stalled crypto legislation. Some analysts say bitcoin could fall back into the $50,000 range if expectations for U.S. interest-rate increases escalate sharply. The CLARITY Act, a U.S. digital-asset market bill, is stuck in congressional deliberations; a Sept. 15 vote will decide whether lawmakers end that discussion. Prediction-market contracts now put the bill’s odds of passing by 2026 below 20%, down from above 50% in July. Crypto analyst Shoji Nishiyama said sharper rate-hike expectations could send bitcoin to $50,000 again. He also flagged potential IPOs by OpenAI and Anthropic as an additional headwind, since those listings may pull some venture capital away from crypto. Not everyone is concerned. Other analysts believe the recent decline may already be over for now, and attention is shifting to the autumn macro and policy environment. The key question is whether bitcoin can keep trading inside the $60,000–$85,000 range over the coming weeks. Nikkei reported the analysis.
Bitcoin’s upward momentum has weakened recently, and the market is facing multiple pressures, including rising expectations for U.S. interest-rate hikes and stalled crypto legislation. In one scenario, a sharp further rise in rate-hike expectations would push bitcoin back into the $50,000 range, according to a Nikkei report.
On the regulatory side, progress on U.S. crypto legislation has stalled, with the CLARITY Act meeting resistance in congressional deliberations. Lawmakers are scheduled to vote Sept. 15 on whether to end that discussion. Prediction-market data show the bill’s odds of passing by 2026 have dropped to under 20%, from over 50% in July.
Crypto analyst Shoji Nishiyama said a sudden jump in U.S. rate-hike expectations could send bitcoin toward $50,000 once again. He also warned that potential IPOs by artificial-intelligence companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic might siphon a slice of venture-capital funds, creating additional pressure on bitcoin.
Some analysts hold a less pessimistic view, saying the previous decline may have ended for now. The market is now focused on whether bitcoin can settle in the $60,000-to-$85,000 band through the autumn’s macro and policy headwinds.
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