Bitcoin Breaches $60K, Hits 20-Month Low
Bitcoin broke below the key psychological support of $60,000 on June 26, hitting a low of $59,023 — its lowest level since October 2024, or a nearly 20-month trough. As of press time, BTC has recovered slightly to around $60,600, with the 24-hour loss narrowing to about 3% and a seven-day decline of approximately 9%. This marks the third time in 2025 that Bitcoin has fallen below the $60,000 threshold. Unlike previous episodes, this sell-off occurs against a backdrop of sustained institutional capital outflows and a sharp shift in macro policy expectations, systematically eroding market confidence.
Core Drivers: Persistent ETF Outflows and Macro Policy Shift
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the primary catalyst for the decline. Since mid-May, ETFs have recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with total outflows of approximately $5.94 billion over the past 30 days — the largest institutional withdrawal wave since their launch in January 2024. On May 28, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million, an all-time high. The total asset under management of Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk from about $113 billion at the start of the year to roughly $77.5 billion, a drop of more than 30%. According to The Block, ETFs still saw net outflows of approximately $113.8 million on June 23, indicating no substantial reversal in institutional selling pressure. The ETF mechanism creates a vicious cycle: when institutions redeem shares, authorized participants must sell the corresponding Bitcoin on the secondary market, generating persistent spot selling pressure. CoinShares characterizes the current situation as an "emotional shock" rather than a structural breakdown of the crypto market's fundamentals.
Macroeconomic factors are adding significant pressure. U.S. job openings in April surged to 7.62 million, far exceeding expectations and hitting a two-year high, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack subsequently warned that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed may need to resume rate hikes. CME FedWatch data shows the market-implied probability of a rate hike by year-end has risen to over 50%. The strong bull market in 2025 was built on the liquidity expectation of Fed rate cuts. Now that rate cut expectations are reversing and real interest rates are rising, institutional capital is pivoting toward low-risk assets such as bonds and cash, making Bitcoin — a high-risk asset — the first to suffer.
Market Outlook: Focus on Inflation Data and Capital Flow Inflection
In the near term, the market's attention will center on upcoming U.S. inflation data and the next policy signals from the Federal Reserve. A lower-than-expected CPI reading could provide a breathing window for Bitcoin, while further evidence of sticky inflation would intensify downside pressure. Until extreme fear subsides and ETF fund flows show a clear turning point, whether Bitcoin can hold the critical $60,000 defense line may determine the next direction of this bear market.
