Bitcoin today broke through the key psychological support of $60,000 during intraday trading, hitting a low of $59,023 — the lowest level since October 2024, marking a nearly 20-month low. As of writing, BTC has slightly recovered from the low to around $60,600, with 24-hour losses narrowing to about 3% and a seven-day cumulative decline of roughly 9%. This marks the third time this year Bitcoin has breached the $60,000 round number. Unlike the previous two instances, this decline occurs against a backdrop of sustained institutional capital outflows and a dramatic shift in macro policy expectations, causing a systematic blow to market confidence.
Spot ETF Suffers Longest Net Outflow Streak
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the core driver of this downturn. Since mid-May, ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows of approximately $5.94 billion over the past 30 days — the largest wave of institutional withdrawals since the ETFs launched in January 2024. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net outflow of $528 million on May 28, a record high since its listing. The total asset size of Bitcoin ETFs has fallen from roughly $113 billion at the beginning of the year to about $77.5 billion, evaporating over 30%. According to The Block, on June 23, ETFs still recorded a net outflow of about $113.8 million, indicating no substantial reversal in institutional withdrawal momentum. Whether institutional selling pressure will ease in the coming period remains a key observation window for the market.
The ETF's redemption mechanism amplifies the decline: when institutions redeem shares, authorized participants must sell the corresponding Bitcoin directly on the secondary market, creating persistent spot selling pressure. CoinShares characterizes the current situation as a 'sentiment shock,' arguing it does not represent a structural breakdown in crypto market fundamentals.
Macro Shift: Rate Hike Risk Weighs on Risk Assets
The macro environment also exerts significant downward pressure on Bitcoin. US job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, far exceeding expectations and hitting the highest level in nearly two years, directly pushing the 10-year Treasury yield back above 4.45%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack subsequently stated publicly that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed may need to restart rate hikes. According to CME FedWatch data, the market's pricing probability of a rate hike by year-end has risen above 50%.
The strong bull market of 2025 was built on the liquidity expectation of 'Fed rate cuts.' Once that expectation reverses and real interest rates rise, institutional funds tend to rotate into low-risk assets such as bonds and cash, leaving Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, the first to suffer. In the near term, market focus will be on the upcoming US inflation data and the Fed's next policy signals. If CPI comes in lower than expected, it could provide Bitcoin with a breathing window; if inflation stickiness is confirmed, further downside pressure will accumulate. Until extreme panic subsides and ETF flows show a clear turning point, Bitcoin's ability to hold the $60,000 line will likely determine the next direction of this bear market.
