On-Chain Data Reveals Escalated Correction
According to the latest report by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current Bitcoin correction is more severe than February's. The 30-day average Bitcoin inflow to exchanges has surged to 122,000 BTC, well above the annual baseline of 82,000 BTC and 50% higher than February's average of ~80,000 BTC, approaching the upper bound of 131,000 BTC. During the same period, Bitcoin's price dropped from the $77,000–$78,000 range to around $59,000, a decline of over 23%.
SOPR Below 1: Sustained Loss-Making
The 30-day average of SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which indicates the profitability of on-chain selling, has fallen to 0.99, consistently below the critical breakeven level of 1. This means that the average sold Bitcoin is now at a loss. Data shows that over the 61-day period from May to July, SOPR was below 1 on 37 days, indicating that loss-making selling has become the norm rather than a temporary phenomenon.
Analyst: Two Conditions Needed for Stabilization
Adler noted that the current situation is not a short-term stress event but a continuous selling process. For the market to stabilize, two conditions must be met simultaneously: SOPR returning above 1 (sellers no longer at a loss) and exchange inflows falling back to the annual normal level. The key risk is that if large amounts of BTC continue to pour into exchanges, supply pressure will persist, making it difficult for market sentiment to improve.