Bitcoin may continue toward new all-time highs if it can break above its 20-month moving average at $87,165, according to CryptoQuant. The firm said its market cycle signals tool shows BTC/USD attempting to reclaim a level that has historically preceded runs to fresh macro highs.
CryptoQuant describes that level as an "inflection frontier." It was last lost in December 2025, and the firm said its bull-bear market cycle indicator still places Bitcoin in a bull market.
20-month average returns as a key battleground
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC/USD has entered a fresh contest with its 20-month simple moving average. As of Oct. 16, that SMA stood at $87,165.
The line also acts as the basis for Bollinger Bands, which CryptoQuant uses in its market cycle signals framework to map Bitcoin’s place in the broader market cycle.
Bollinger Bands apply standard deviation above and below the 20-month SMA. The upper band currently sits at $121,640, while the lower band is at $52,694. CryptoQuant defines the area between the lower band and the SMA as an "accumulation base," while calling the SMA itself the "inflection frontier." The firm said that level has previously marked investor capitulation when price broke below it from above, most recently in December 2025.
With Bitcoin now approaching that capitulation zone from below, historical patterns show that successful breakouts have been followed by new cycle highs.
In a blog post, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain wrote, "Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its 'reset'."
CryptoQuant added that Bollinger Bands are not meant to generate direct buy or sell signals. In its market cycle signals model, however, "smart money" tends to take profit when BTC/USD reaches the upper band. That band is now just below Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025, but the firm said the next rally could extend beyond that level.
GugaOnChain added, "While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it’s the 'top,' the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up," referring to what CryptoQuant described as the current support zone.
The 20-month SMA also lines up with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening level of $87,490, strengthening its role as resistance. Cointelegraph previously reported that large walls of ask liquidity remain nearby on exchange order books.
Onchain readings continue to support a bull-market view
CryptoQuant has kept a broadly positive outlook on Bitcoin’s developing bull market even as crypto and other risk assets face macroeconomic headwinds.
This week, contributor XWIN Research Japan pointed to three onchain metrics that it said offered reason for "cautious optimism" that bullish momentum could return before the end of October.
In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the bear market was "over" based on readings from the bull-bear market cycle indicator. That indicator combines data from several onchain profitability metrics. It now stands at 0.186, up from 0.042 in August, a change CryptoQuant said reflects accelerating bullish momentum.