Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to one of the lowest levels in its history, and Fidelity Digital Assets says that kind of calm may not last much longer.
According to the Fidelity unit, Bitcoin volatility is now lower than roughly 98.5% of all trading days across the asset’s 17-year history. Spot trading volume, it added, has also fallen to its lowest level since 2019.
In a post on X, Fidelity Digital Assets wrote: 「Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move...」
The article said Bitcoin’s price has been almost unchanged over a 30-day period, with some analysts saying a bottom is likely in. Bitcoin was recently trading at $65,329, nearly 50% below the all-time high it reached in October 2025.
Fidelity points back to earlier August comments
Fidelity also referenced a post from earlier this month, where it said that even though volatility had come down, periods of compression like this do not usually last forever.
The firm did not say whether the eventual break would be higher or lower. Its point was narrower: when volatility stays suppressed for an extended stretch, the odds of a more meaningful move rise once the range gives way.
VanEck says 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2%
VanEck said on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility had dropped to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month. That figure is also less than half of Bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%, according to the report.
VanEck added that, based on the duration of prior cycles, it sees a bottom potentially forming between September and November this year.
K33 Research said 2025 was the least volatile year
The article also cited a December report from K33 Research, which said Bitcoin’s sharp price swings had eased and that 2025 was the least volatile year in the asset’s history.
K33 predicted at the time that 2026 would see Bitcoin outperform both gold and equities in terms of gains.
Spot ETFs widened access to Bitcoin
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024, the report said Bitcoin became accessible to a new class of investors. More cautious retail buyers who had previously been deterred by cold storage can now gain exposure through brokerage accounts.
Institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds and banks, can also access Bitcoin exposure through ETFs. As Bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown, the asset’s volatility has come down significantly, leading to less extreme price swings than in earlier years.
The article added that, so far, Bitcoin’s current bear market is the shallowest in its 16-year history.