Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets, is reconsidering his bullish bitcoin call, but not because he believes he was overly optimistic. His latest message to clients suggests the opposite: the market may be moving fast enough that his previous upside target no longer looks ambitious. As bitcoin trades near $100,000, Kendrick now argues that the pace and character of the rally have changed in ways that justify a more aggressive interpretation of where BTC could go next.
In a client email sent on Thursday, Kendrick wrote that he apologizes if his $120,000 target for the second quarter turns out to be too low. That comment marked a clear revision of his earlier framework, which had projected bitcoin peaking around that level in Q2 2025. Instead of backing away from a bullish stance, he is effectively saying that price action has outrun the assumptions behind his previous forecast.
Why Kendrick now thinks his $120,000 target may have been conservative
Only last month, Kendrick said bitcoin was likely to reach a fresh all-time high by mid-year. At the time, he grounded that view in two main drivers: a strategic reallocation away from U.S. assets and continued accumulation by large holders, often referred to as whales. In crypto markets, those whales can have an outsized impact on price trends because their buying behavior tends to reinforce momentum and signal confidence to other investors.
What has changed is not the direction of his view, but the speed of the market. Bitcoin has been hovering around six figures and was recently quoted at $99,293.54, up more than 3% on the day. That kind of acceleration suggests that the original target may be reached sooner and with stronger institutional support than he expected. In practical terms, Kendrick is no longer treating $120,000 as an obvious local top. It may instead become a stepping stone in a larger upward move.
This distinction matters. In fast-moving crypto cycles, analysts often revise targets because their original thesis breaks down. Here, Kendrick is making a different argument: the thesis is still intact, but the inflow dynamics are now stronger, broader, and more durable than before. That implies the market is not simply overshooting due to speculation. It may be repricing bitcoin under a new structural narrative.
The dominant bitcoin story has shifted from correlation to flows
Kendrick said the dominant story for bitcoin has changed again. At one stage, BTC was mainly viewed through its correlation with risk assets, especially high-volatility segments of the equity market. Then the narrative shifted toward bitcoin as a vehicle for strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets. Now, according to Kendrick, the central driver is something more direct and more powerful: flows.
His wording is important. He said bitcoin first traded as a proxy for risk assets, then as a positioning tool for moving out of U.S. assets, and now “it is all about flows.” He also emphasized that these flows are coming in many forms. That broader flow-based framework helps explain why bitcoin is behaving less like a pure sentiment trade and more like an asset that is being accumulated across multiple institutional channels.
Once the market shifts from a correlation-based narrative to a flow-based one, valuation behavior can change significantly. Under the old model, bitcoin often moved as if it were an extension of speculative tech exposure. Under the new model, BTC begins to develop a more independent price identity. For portfolio managers, that means bitcoin may increasingly be evaluated not only as a high-beta trade, but as a macro asset with a strategic role in diversified portfolios.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows of $5.3 billion in three weeks are a key signal
The clearest evidence Kendrick offered for this change is the scale of recent ETF inflows. According to him, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $5.3 billion over the last three weeks. That figure matters because ETF subscriptions are often interpreted as a more reliable gauge of institutional demand than short-term speculative trading on crypto-native venues. ETFs provide a regulated and operationally familiar route for traditional investors to gain BTC exposure.
Just as important, this was not a one-day burst of enthusiasm. It was a sustained period of net inflows. That pattern suggests continued allocation activity rather than a temporary momentum chase. If these flows persist, bitcoin may benefit from steady demand at price levels where previous rallies would have faced heavier profit-taking pressure. In that sense, ETF buying can help absorb selling and support a stronger floor under the market.
Kendrick sees this as further confirmation that bitcoin is evolving into a macro asset within global portfolios. Instead of remaining a niche speculative position, BTC is increasingly being treated as an investable allocation sleeve. That transition does not eliminate volatility, but it does change the context in which the market interprets bitcoin’s price moves and long-term relevance.
Strategy, Abu Dhabi, and the Swiss National Bank as institutional proof points
To reinforce his revised view, Kendrick pointed to several heavyweight examples beyond ETF flow data. One is Strategy, which has continued to ramp up its bitcoin purchases. The company remains one of the most visible examples of a corporate balance-sheet approach to BTC, and every additional purchase tends to be read as a signal of long-term conviction rather than opportunistic trading.
Another example is the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, which holds BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT. This is notable because sovereign wealth funds typically operate with long time horizons and strategic asset allocation frameworks. Their involvement can send a powerful signal that bitcoin is moving into more institutionally accepted territory, especially among large pools of state-linked capital.
Kendrick also highlighted reports that the Swiss National Bank holds shares of MSTR. In market practice, MSTR is often viewed as a leveraged bitcoin proxy because of the company’s large BTC holdings and the sensitivity of its equity performance to bitcoin price movements. The implication is that even when institutions are not directly holding spot BTC, they may still be building meaningful bitcoin exposure through public equities and exchange-traded products.
- Strategy continues expanding its bitcoin position and remains a major corporate accumulation case.
- The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund holds BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF IBIT.
- The Swiss National Bank reportedly owns MSTR shares, often treated as a leveraged bitcoin proxy.
Bitcoin is being reclassified from a tech-risk proxy to a macro asset
For years, bitcoin was frequently grouped with high-risk U.S. technology stocks because of its sharp volatility and tendency to move alongside broader risk sentiment. That framing was useful for a period, especially when macro tightening and growth-stock weakness heavily influenced crypto prices. But Kendrick now argues that this lens is becoming less adequate as institutional adoption deepens.
His broader thesis is that bitcoin’s narrative is undergoing a structural shift. Rather than acting merely as a volatile companion to speculative equities, BTC is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a macro asset with a place in global allocation strategies. If that transition continues, the implications for price could be substantial. In Kendrick’s view, bitcoin may not only move beyond $120,000 this summer, but continue toward his existing year-end forecast of $200,000.
Earlier, Kendrick had said that supportive factors should push BTC to a fresh all-time high around $120,000 in Q2. Now, with bitcoin already nearing six figures, that level may look less like a final destination and more like a milestone on the way higher. The key takeaway from his revised stance is not just a more bullish number. It is the idea that bitcoin’s current rally is increasingly being shaped by diversified, institutional, multi-channel capital flows rather than by the old risk-on narrative alone.