Bitcoin's daily structure is turning bearish; can the short-term bounce break through the descending channel's upper boundary? Has HYPE's seven-wave advance run its course? This analysis systematically reviews the current market structure across multiple timeframes and lays out trading strategies for the medium and short term this week.
1. Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Channel Analysis
Since the low on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin has been oscillating upward within an ascending channel (yellow). The lower boundary connects the lows of February 6 and March 29, while the upper boundary is a parallel line passing through the March 17 high. After peaking at $82,850 on May 6, the price entered a short-term descending channel (blue), where the upper boundary links the bounce highs of May 14 and May 26, and the lower boundary connects the correction lows of May 7 and May 23.
Currently, the price has broken below the midpoint of the ascending channel and is seeking stronger support at the lower boundary. At the same time, after finding temporary support near the lower band of the short-term descending channel (around $72,500), the price is attempting a weak rebound toward that channel's upper boundary. Overall, this bounce is a relief rally from oversold conditions targeting the descending channel's upper boundary. However, the breach of the ascending channel's midpoint has weakened the broader technical structure, and once the rebound ends, the market is likely to resume its prior downtrend, testing the support of the ascending channel's lower boundary.
2. BTC 4-Hour Structure and Key Levels
On the 4-hour chart, the correction from the May 6 high at $82,850 can be subdivided into a 10-wave structure (waves 27-28 through 36-37), containing two descending consolidation zones. Consolidation D is formed by the overlapping waves 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31; consolidation E is formed by waves 32-33, 33-34, and 34-35. The market is currently progressing in wave 36-37. If the price encounters resistance and fails to break through the $75,000–$76,000 zone, it will likely extend the bearish structure and test the support area of $69,500–$70,500, and possibly the $65,000 neighborhood.
Key resistance zones: first at $75,000–$76,000 (near the lower boundary of consolidation E), second at $78,500–$79,500 (around the upper and lower boundaries of both consolidation zones). Key support zones: first at $69,500–$70,500, second near $65,000.
3. HYPE Momentum Divergence and Top Signals
On the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE has built a clear seven-wave structure (waves 40-41 through 46-47) containing a bull market consolidation zone since its low of $38.14 on May 14. Waves 43-44, 44-45, and 45-46 overlap to form the consolidation. Earlier reviews warned that endpoint 45 exhibited bearish momentum divergence alongside a top signal from the price action model, suggesting a high probability of a short-term top. The market confirmed this, retreating from $64.75 to $56.30 – a maximum decline of 13.05%.
Currently, the breakout segment (46-47) shows waning bullish momentum compared to the entry segment (42-43), indicating a strong potential for momentum divergence. Additionally, the price action model has triggered an intensive top warning at endpoint 47. If this top signal is confirmed and the price subsequently breaks below the $62.5–$64.57 support zone, endpoint 47 could mark the end of the uptrend that began on May 14.
4. Short-Term Trading Strategies and Last Week's Trade Review
BTC short-term strategy: use no more than 30% of the position, with entries and exits based on support and resistance levels. Plan A: if the price rebounds to $75,000–$76,000 and stalls with model-based top signals, establish a short position of 30% or less with an initial stop above $77,000, taking profit gradually near support. Plan B: if the price effectively breaks below the $69,500–$70,500 support with model confirmation, establish a short position of 30% or less with a stop above $72,000, closing near the next support level.
HYPE short-term strategy: favor buying on dips and avoid chasing rallies. If the price pulls back to the $62.5–$64.75 zone and shows signs of stabilization combined with bottom signals from both models, consider a light long position (max 30%) with strict stop-loss discipline. A decisive breakdown below this zone would escalate the correction to a daily-level adjustment, targeting the $54–$56.3 area first.
Last week, strictly following the operation plan and signals from the self-developed price action and momentum models, a short trade was executed. Entry: the price rebounded to near $78,000 and showed bearish reversal signals with model-based top warnings, leading to a 30% short position at $77,449. Exit: near $73,000, stop-loss signals emerged with a bottom divergence resonance, and the entire position was closed around $73,519, resulting in a profit of about 5.07%.
5. Risk Management and Disclaimers
Set an initial stop immediately upon entering a trade. Once the profit reaches 1%, move the stop to the entry price (break-even). At 2% profit, move the stop to lock in a 1% gain. Thereafter, for every additional 1% gain, trail the stop by 1% to dynamically protect profits. All views, models, and strategies presented are derived from personal technical analysis and serve only as a personal trading log. They do not constitute any form of investment advice. Markets are risky; invest with caution.