Revenue Structure Imbalance: 136% Gap Between Theoretical and Actual Daily Revenue
Bitcoin mining is experiencing its most complex structural adjustment since the protocol's inception. Although BTC price remains around $61,000 and network hashrate is near 1 ZH/s, miner profitability continues to deteriorate. Data shows that at the current price, theoretical daily revenue for all miners should be about $78 million, but actual revenue is only $33 million—a gap of approximately 136%. Meanwhile, transaction fee revenue remains persistently low, averaging just $220,000 per day, far below the $9.7 million implied by historical relationships. As halvings continue to reduce new issuance, Bitcoin mining faces increasing profitability pressure.
Cost Pressure Mounts: Electricity Costs Account for 71.5% of Revenue, Breakeven Near $65,000
Beyond declining revenue, cost pressures on mining companies are steadily increasing. In 2025, total Bitcoin miner revenue was approximately $17.2 billion, of which electricity costs alone accounted for $12.3 billion—71.5% of total revenue. Global hardware investment in mining rigs was about $4.5 billion. Overall, the industry's breakeven price is estimated at around $65,000, meaning that at current price levels, reliance solely on mining operations can no longer sustain ideal profitability. Miners are increasingly transitioning from pure Bitcoin producers to infrastructure operators, energy operators, and AI/HPC computing infrastructure providers.
2028 Halving as a Tipping Point: Production Cost Floor to Rise to $93,289, Institutional Miners Gain Edge
After the 2028 halving, the lower bound of Bitcoin production cost is expected to rise to approximately $93,289, accelerating industry consolidation toward a few large, well-capitalized, and revenue-diversified mining companies. Compared to traditional miners dependent on block rewards, institutional miners with access to low-cost power, AI/HPC hosting business, and stronger balance sheets are poised to gain a competitive advantage in the next cycle. The focus of mining competition is gradually shifting from hashrate expansion to business model upgrades.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.
