Bitcoin is getting close to a bull-market threshold, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., but the latest price move appears to be driven largely by leverage in the futures market rather than a cleaner spot-led advance. Over the past 24 hours, BTC rose 3.9% while open interest increased by about 11,200 BTC, a 3.4% gain. Adler said that combination points to derivatives-fueled momentum.
He also cited a sharper buildup within a shorter window: open interest climbed by as much as 15,200 BTC in six hours, while the leverage flow pressure index reached 63. During the past 24 hours, 15 hours showed long-position buildup. In Adler’s reading, that matters because rallies powered mainly by short covering and liquidations usually coincide with falling open interest. This time, open interest expanded instead, suggesting that newly added futures leverage was the main force behind the price rise.
Even so, Adler said his one-year model has not yet formally flipped into bull-market territory. For confirmation, Bitcoin would need to close the daily candle above the model’s dynamic threshold and hold that level without a rapid unwind in leverage. The main risk, he said, is that the accumulated leverage could be closed out suddenly, reversing the move.
Bitcoin is close to entering a bull-market state, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., though he said the current advance is being driven mainly by futures leverage.
In the past 24 hours, BTC gained 3.9%, while open interest rose by about 11,200 BTC, up 3.4%. Adler said that points to momentum coming primarily from the derivatives market.
Open interest and leverage indicators moved higher together
Data cited by Adler showed that open interest increased by as much as 15,200 BTC within six hours, while the leverage flow pressure index climbed to 63. Over the same 24-hour period, 15 hours showed long-position buildup.
He said that if the rally had been driven mostly by short covering and liquidations, open interest would usually decline. Instead, open interest increased markedly, which he said indicates that newly added futures leverage has been the main driver of the price rise.
Bull-market confirmation still depends on a daily close above the model threshold
Adler added that his one-year model has not yet officially shifted into bull-market territory. In his view, confirmation requires Bitcoin to close the daily candle above the model’s dynamic threshold and then hold that level without a rapid leverage unwind.
He also flagged the main risk: a sudden closure of accumulated leverage that could reverse the market move.
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